BooneWX

Just me, or does thing seem to be coming slightly farther west than predicted? The turn doesn't seem to be as prominent as forecasted. 

Feels like fall today. I love it!

Last couple of frames on radar almost seemed as if she was starting to move wnw a bit. Just my eyes, or anyone else notice it? Might just be a wobble. 

West side looks like its getting eroded by dry air.

I think the weakening is temporary. IR looks significantly better than the previous 8 hrs. Might not become a cat 4 again, but no reason to believe it can’t be a major hurricane at landfall.

35 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more.

 

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Yep! Not to mention that while it has the storm moving slow, it doesn’t stall it. Continues trucking west and most of the foothills, central mountains, and northern mountains get in on gusts ranging from 40-55mph (I’d assume a bit higher on mountain tops). Normally, we wouldn’t sweat it, but after getting completely washed for the 12-24 hrs before, we’d be absolutely screwed with trees, outages etc. 

Something that I haven’t mentioned in the other thread out of fear of getting roasted: the track suggesting a dramatic drift SW...just doesn’t make sense. I mean yes I understand the mechanics behind it with the ridge to the north, but idk. It’s so illogical. Seems more logical to assume the ridge isn’t quite that strong, the storm slows and rides the state line westward. It’s a very large storm, and I find it hard to believe it’s just halted and shoved so easily to the south. I really think the euro was on to something 36 hrs ago when it spelled out this solution (state line, west into wnc and tenn). 

Anyways, I guess we will see and hope for the best. I’m not letting my guard down. The storm has already reached a latitude higher than the nhc cone. She might be coming north fellas. Don’t let your guard down. 

The rain situation is starting to look very serious for all of us. 

Not to mention that if it can manage to speed up at all, or stall further west, we are in play for some gusty winds as well. 

And just like that, unfortunately, we are back in it. 00Z suite would not spell good things for our area. 

1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Can anyone lay their hands on any projected win probabilities for our area, based on the latest runs?

Afternoon runs were definitely in our favor. I’m cautiously optimistic. Something that has me concerned is its strength and ability to turn. If it makes landfall as a 4, how easy will it be for the storm to turn north..? 

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I'd put way more weight toward the euro and its ens suite verse all the gfs and all those model plots that are derived off the same exact physics the gfs is. Just my 2 cents. I'd pay money for the gfs camp to finally get one right and save me alot of headaches selfishly. Always better to go lend help than be the one receiving it.

For days I've felt like this storm is going to take an abnormal path. I think we are all trying to apply way too much of the "it usually happens like this" logic for a storm that has been anything but logical to this point. 

Regardless of how people feel about him, I just watched Joe Bastardi's daily update, and he's with the Euro camp of having a landfall between Myrtle and Wilmington with it tracking towards the mountains. He's been spot on so far and was spot on with Gordon, so I'm not sure what to think.

Absolute nightmare scenario for western N.C. I love weather but there’s zero part of me that wants to lose power for weeks and be in a Houston type of situation with flooding. 

Wow. The trend was not in our favor overnight fellas. I hope this changes quickly. Euro output had 40+ inches of rain falling in our area. Not to mention that we would also be in the strongest winds now.

Took a peak at the potential wind gusts map from the Euro. 50-70 mph in NW NC with full foliage and 10 inches of rain?? Yikes. 

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Yeah, only thing that would save NC is if the models are wrong and Flo goes west longer. Of course, that is bad for SC.

Even then, it probably stays relatively close to the border and rakes all of NC with the worst side of the storm. A lot of lose-lose scenarios taking shape and it's a bit alarming. 

Surprised nobody has chimed in regarding Florence possibly impacting us. What do you guys think? I’ve got a weird feeling about Florence going through SC and then inland. Could have impacts on us that we would all like to avoid (especially the northern mts). 

I get a feeling that this storm is going to track towards an eventual landfall in SC and push inland. I don’t think the models are quite nailing down just how strong the high may be. 

Whoa. I've been absent from the thread for too long. I hope everyone is doing well. I just wanted to drop in and ask if any of you have at-home weather stations. I'd really like to invest in one in the near future and I wanted to see if anyone had a particular suggestion. 

Summer, the most underrated part of mountain weather. The rest of the southeast bakes in 90+ degree weather and sultry humidity and most days are at worse, in the low 80s with some stickiness and a light breeze. 

2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes Sir I did get 19", 11" of it was in a four hour period. Beat all I ever seen that morning 4 inches in one hour!!! I doubt I'll ever see anything close to that again, but it sure would be nice to have a run at it......................................... 

x2. I was living in Mount Airy at the time. Unreal snow rates and I doubt I ever see snowfall rates like that again in my life. Measured 17 inches after the storm with some spots closer to 20.