BooneWX

 We really needed the steady rain today. I don’t think I had realized just how dry it’s been recently unless you got lucky with thunderstorms this past week. Grass was starting to go dormant and I’ve been breaking my back trying to keep up with the watering needs for new plants I added back in March.

@Bucketheadis at 34 in his location and I’m at 73 and dropping. Obvious differences in elevation I know but it’s truly incredible what kind of swings you can have in climate over short distances in NC - and also the difference terrain makes with cold air advection. 

On 3/22/2024 at 10:14 AM, UnionCountyNCWX said:

GFS looks like it's drying out for most of us after this storm. The only areas picking up anything notable will be along the coast until the end of the run.

I’m not mad at it

1.48 here. Breezy warm day. It feels like spring. The pine trees are going to be insufferable next week.

Surprised it’s so quiet in here! The GFS laid the hammer for the central mts and points north Friday. Verbatim it was a nice thumping of wet snow, 3-7 inches. 

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I will believe it when I see it. 

You can believe it this time. We’re far enough along that even a lobe of the PV would deliver 40 and rain. Spring and early summer is always our best winter atmospheric pattern. 

Models showing winter coming back in a big way mid month. I’d say it’s wrong, but we know this is the time of year it’ll finally verify 

heavy sleet atm

I have zero doubt in my mind that this will finally be the moment cold air moves from the long range to the medium and short range. Expect that pattern to persist through June. It does every single year.

50 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm really worried about this fall. If hurricane season is half as bad as some are saying we could see brutal flooding Ala 2004. 

This hurricane season could be nuts. Sea surface temps in the MDR are comparable to what we typically see in June. I don’t doubt that the same Mets who were throwing out analogs like 2010 for this winter will be screaming “2005” for hurricane season soon  but they may be right this time or at least closer to correct. 

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

This place died. lol. 

For some. For others, we’ll be switching to tracking events that actually occur here, like 500 year rainfall events and 40 degree temps in May.

Regardless of the winter, I’m glad this season brought us this thread! One day we’re partying in the hills again but until then, let’s keep the good vibes flowing with thunderboomer season. 

With things looking the way they do, I figure many on this forum will start checking out until late next fall so I just wanted to say thanks and I enjoyed the ride, even if it wasn’t a good one. We’re all nuts about meteorology and I learn more in this group than anywhere else. A special shout out to @GaWxfor the play by play this winter and here’s to hoping this is 1993 .

What a fun snow event to our north tonight. The dynamics have taken me by surprise with the thundersnow and high rates for folks thinking they would get a light event. The poor mets at NWS St.Louis issued an apology for the forecast being too low compared to reality . Could you imagine being mad about too much snow? Is there such a thing?

4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

The worst heartbreaker here(among many) was March 1, 2009 Upper Level Low. We got a dusting and literally 15 miles west and 20 miles east had 4 inches or more. It was too warm for the first part of the storm then the ULL went just too far south and we missed the deform band. That led to downsloping wind and flurries while Shelby-Hickory got hammered. 

 

Another reason this was painful was because the previous 2 winters were bad. Not as bad as these last 2 though. 

This storm and its gradient were absolutely wild. Lenoir barely getting a coating but granite falls getting half a foot is quite amazing since thats just a few miles as the crow flies.

34 minutes ago, jpbart said:

My hopes have turned to a mild damp spring that lasts until May~ish with out the killing frosts of March.  Peach crops took a pounding last year, let's hope things play out better this time around.

I’m gonna be that guy…. Torch baby torch! Let’s knock out pollen season efficiently and get to that beautiful time of year on steamy days when you’re watching 30k ft towers break the cap in the distance and fall asleep to those long rumbles of thunder. 

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before. 

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

Check out the anomaly’s south of the Aleutian Islands….sort of explains why we consistently pop a ridge in that region and can never sustain it closer to the Lower 48.

Looking under the hood, our ridge out west starts to look better on the GEFS but right as it starts to get established and begins letting the cold air dump east, it’s severed in half by a rapidly developing west coast trough. Just another example in the long list of examples where the pacific keeps the cold in the long range from entering the short range.

Another layer to this climate change conversation:

We as a region are very dependent on proper cold from source regions. Snowpack to our north has been absolutely anemic this year and in years past. Arctic air doesn’t have that same punch that it used to because of it imo. As climate change warms the northern latitudes, it’s just going to get increasingly more challenging for cold air to not moderate as it moves south. 

I want to give a shout out to @BuffaloWeather. While the winter in the south sucked, your livestreams during lake effect have not. Hopefully you’ve got one more event left at least!

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I just don't know what it will take for us to get a snowstorm. 

I really think it’s this La Niña-ish pattern that’s truly killing us. The cold air transport is completely shut off as long as we have a parade of lows traversing a path from Alberta to New England. I love that we’ve had blocking this winter at times but that’s useless unless you have a high to anchor in. One thing is for sure, the moisture is there. My yard is absolute muck right now, which is hilariously ironic after a fall completely devoid of rain. 

This La Niña pattern in the middle of an El Niño is truly something 

36 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The northern stream is starting to dominate the southern energy on modeling. That squashes it even though it's colder. We need a phase for us Western NC folks. 

Luckily the ridge out west is trending stronger. We need it to go a bit taller but we’re close.