BooneWX

49 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

How is the pacific looking? Places like Seattle and Portland,  for example have done very well the last few years. Just because the trough sets up on the west coast doesn't equal climate change. 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For bashing of this winter

Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass.

Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter. 

49 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

But you cannot blame climate change for every anomaly in weather behavior either

Interesting you chose the word "scorching"

Last point on this since we’ve been asked to return to the wishcasting for snow comments to stay on topic. 
 

im by no means arguing that every anomaly is related to climate change. I made a point that we’re seeing less and less winter weather in the south. This predates 5 years of poor east coast patterns. Heck, take winter out of the equation and just look at the overall averages for the past 20 years and you can see the trend. Again, you’re absolutely right that we can’t blame every specific event on the climate but the trend is not our friend.

edit: and yes, scorching is the best way to describe the ocean when its temps are on par with mid-summer. 

19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

I can assure you that me making a link between climate change and how it impacts our mid range pattern is a lot more on topic than anything else on this platform the past 3 weeks.

18 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 

the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11

I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later!

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Today is absolutely glorious. Let’s just move to this through May.

You know as well as I do that winter always arrives in April 

No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done. 
 

Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round. 

The pacific pattern of the past few years will certainly be one worth studying 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

It's not Perfect, but better than previous runs!

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Wild how the GFS knows exactly where I-85 is

15 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Major snowfall 2/18 E NC to the coast on 12Z Euro!

Edit: There’s also followup light precip breaking out deep S on 2/19 within a strong wedge associated with a second weak GOM low.

That sort of evolution has worked on many times before. Christmas 2009 or was it 2010? Comes to mind. Two separate waves delivering the goods to different areas. 

Fwiw that looked like a very strong overrunning signal for a few frames and I wouldn’t anticipate a global to sniff that out at 180 hrs

Ssssssshhhhhhhhewwwww that was an inch from crashing this forum.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I'm going to give it 3 more weeks before I'm totally done

My rule of thumb has always been that when March Madness tips off mid-month with conference tournaments, it’s over. The fat lady will have sung her song. Honestly excited for spring - this has been a wet and miserable winter with a lot of sickness and won’t be mad if we’re torching in 3 weeks.

34 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Going back to the question of can their be an ice storm late in the season, here are a few more examples since 1970 in NC

That mid-Feb 2003 storm was nuts. I’ve never seen sleet accumulate like that in my life. It was a crust that stuck around for days and it made for the best sledding. 

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

The Climate Prediction is not perfect in its forecast, but it doesn’t put these outlooks out recklessly 

Nope! At a minimum it’s a sign that they’re on board for recognizing the ripe potential in front of us.

Presidents Day just continues to look interesting. It feels like if we’re going to have a window, it’s that window. 

25 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

For kicks and giggles


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I’ll shut up for years if I net almost 20 inches 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 These MJO forecasts are conducive 2/17+ for a cold SE with low amp 8 followed by going into the left side of the circle:

 

Not gonna lie. I selfishly loved the Euro depiction: a sustained trip through the cold phases for one last crack at winter weather but then progressing firmly to the warm side of things as spring creeps in. As much as I love snow odds, I’ll always die on the hill that cold springs suck. 

One thing is clear. The PNA is going to cooperate. There’s probably no single teleconnection more important than that. I love how tall that ridge becomes too. It should at least give the northern energy more opportunities to dig and mingle with the pieces of energy coming out of the Baja area. 

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Been seeing more and more talk about a major SSW on the way. This by no means is a unicorn but would greatly enhance blocking towards the first of March.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I’m always torn on hoping for this or not hoping for this. Too much of a push encourages suppression but perhaps it could work out well as we move away from prime climo. 

If anyone buys the OP GFS outside of 72 hrs, I’ve got some oceanfront property in Murphy I could sell ya