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Posts posted by BooneWX
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This may be a good GFS run……..
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This storm is very close to being very big for many. It’s easy to get caught up in the windshield wiper effect but the bottom line is that we’re watching very subtle changes that can influence a big nothing burger or a paste bomb. Too early to tap out.
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31 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:
What would it take to get the Eastern areas on the snow game lol
Moving I-85 a few hundred miles east
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6 minutes ago, Tullioz said:
Wake up @wncsnowyoure getting pasted
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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:
You're referring the one in the OV showing up on the ensembles correct? I need it just a hair east and anchored.
While we’re putting out requests, mark me down for it to be a 1040
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Come to think of it, the last 3 model cycles have introduced very drastic changes to our cold air source from the north. If we’re trending away from the 50/50 low as a source, we really need that high to anchor.
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6 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:
Trying to understand here. Does it require the low to turn north up the coast in order to create the negative tilt? I noticed that this one is just shooting straight out to sea.
Climbing the coast doesn’t create negative tilt, we just need the energy to dig a bit more and consolidate, which gives us a better chance at a negatively tilted storm. Right now it’s weak and strung out. It’s shooting out to sea at the moment because it has no room to lift north because of the 50/50 low blocking it near Nova Scotia. The trend during 12z is to scoot that 50/50 low further east, letting the storm have more room to climb and high pressure feeding cold air down the spine of the apps. All positive steps but a slightly more amplified storm would help a bit.
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Overall, the setup looks better than last night on the euro but the storm is still flat and suppressed with a neutral tilt. Baby steps.
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Better cad signature on the euro this run but it’s still not going to cut it
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As I said in the Mtn thread yesterday, I had a feeling this would trend towards a CAD event if it continued trending towards an event at all. Let’s reel this one in boys. I love the look of the mean for our region.
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Check please
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Wouldn’t sweat the euro. A 985 mb low just off of Myrtle beach that’s essentially completely devoid of moisture isn’t an output I’d take literally.
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30 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:
12z GFS is a couple NW trends away from something big.
Been steady light snow here all morning but stuck at 36 with no stickage. Was really hoping it would wait to get started tonight but short range models still look good overnight and first half of tomorrow.
I think that’s where we’re headed in the end. I can’t remember which met on twitter mentioned this yesterday, but if that low near Maine doesn’t start trending further east, this is less likely to be a slider and more likely to be a coastal storm.
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Also today could be rough. It’ll take a lot less wind than normal to push trees over, after the deluge we’ve had.
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2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:
Allan Huffman talked about the threat on "X". He says the operational runs have more skill than the ensemble so don't discount the OPS even at this range, unfortunately. All of them other than the cmc are to suppressed and the CMC is to warm.
Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
Suppressed is good at 7 days
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Murphy to manteo to the upstate and in between. That’s what this board needs. Don’t even care if it takes a much less amped storm and smaller totals to make it happen.
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Man what a flip overnight. The long range had hinted at the 4-6th timeframe for days but that Euro run made me knees weak.
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Clown maps aside. The gfs shows the potential that we’ve waited all winter long for. Feb has always been the target with a strong El Niño, so let’s see if it can deliver. Lord knows this forum needs it lol.
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
in Southeastern States
Posted
That was close. It looked better in the early stages - just didn’t look great when it got here. Again, baby steps.