BooneWX

Lol my projection an hour ago is now my “1 in 10” chance. 

Anybody had a chance to dive in and see if obs over the Deep South are matching model runs?

Pumped they started a thread for Friday’s threat so the whining will dry up in the main storm thread.

1 minute ago, BretWx said:

HRRR trying to run the Apps again 

It was looking so good until the low suddenly went poleward 150 miles in an hour.

Here comes the CAD

I know it’s strong but color me shocked if a low in Charleston produces sleet and freezing rain all the way to the mountains. 

Just now, BretWx said:

LP went from around Macon to Dollywood in an hour 

 

Has to be resolving the system incorrectly. The isobars suggest it’s still in middle Georgia on that frame.

That back end band is going to thump some folks

Weird. The low pressure position is significantly better but it shows worse results 

We didn’t discuss it much but the 06z GFS didn’t blink. It’s been telling the same story for 8+ runs now.

Yea I’m still not buying it but that’s more of a gut feeling than anything. I mean at Hr 32, it’s a 996 low in Banner Elk with zero signs of coastal transfer. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

We get about 6 inches before some sleet gets close

I’m no expert but looking at some of the “sleet” soundings, it sure seems like it’d still be a Snow/Sleet mix. The warm nose is there but not egregiously in our area. I imagine it’d be snowing fatties and mixing with a bit of sleet.

If this track shown on the short range models unfolds, have we seen anything like it?? I truly can’t recall anything remotely similar. 

HRRR is a hell of a front end thump, that’s for sure

26 imby with thick clouds rolling in. Not that it’s going to matter a ton, but hopefully we can cap off any heating by the sun and stay locked in the 30s.

GFS PASTE BOMB. See y’all in the morning. 

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Here ya go from pivotal. General trend has been down over the last several runs but this one looks slightly better for the NW mountains. Still 36 hours for another windshield wiper trend.

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Plenty of time indeed. I’ve got a weird feeling about the short range models. If the gfs holds serve, I think we’ll see the short range get a clue tomorrow but time will tell. 

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM still looks similar. A bit less snow but pretty consistent. 

Anybody got the clown? Mine is stuck at hr 28 for the snowfall 

1 minute ago, BretWx said:

NAM is trying to send it up the Aps again .. but by that time we've got some solid snow OTG. 

 

That comma on the backside means BUSINESS

Don’t let any model run distract you from the fact that we were golfing and fishing 2 weeks ago. Just enjoy the moment. 

23 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Yikes. I see a period of ZR and mix really close to me. Maybe that's just heavy, heavy rates that get confused with ZR/mix? Not sure if that's even a possibility, but I'm just hoping against ZR IMBY.

Edit: Oh and I wanna see ridiculously heavy rates with fatties. Goes without saying.

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I’ve lived in the foothills a vast majority of my life and the rule of thumb I’ve always had in most of these setups is that sleet overperforms and saves the day during a transition. Let’s hope that rule of thumb continues but I definitely think my area spends more time as snow, snow/sleet than much else. The warm nose is prevalent on the sounding but it’s not honking at Zr. 

The trend with Zr in the Euro is highly concerning. Gives me 7 inches of wet snow and over a half an inch of ice. Cut that in half and it’s still lights out.

The cutoff is going to be gnarly on the east side. If you look at the town by town probabilities, it’s even more evident. 

https://www.weather.gov/gsp/winter

Beautiful deform band swinging through at 51 to put the final touches on the storm

Icon is absolutely unloading on WNC at hr 42