BooneWX

3 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Can't stress this enough. The LP isn't going to visit Murphy/Highlands/Franklin.

Seems like it’s had really bad feedback issues the past several runs. Not sure what’s up with it but it also performed miserably with the storm a week or so ago if I remember correctly.

HRRR was setting up to be a really nice hit for western NC on the 18z. 

Diving into the 850s on the GFS, it looks good for almost everyone, including most of the foothills after a brief trip to the 1-2 degree mark. Let’s hope it continues at 18z but like we said earlier - wildly consistent. 

6 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I may be wrong, but I've always assumed my location is in the escarpment   - Maybe it's just my elevation facing East fooling me.

Oh I think the Hendersonville area will be in the rake zone as well 

The eastern slopes are going to be absolutely buried with upslope flow. I’ll be shocked if there aren’t a few major over performances along the escapement. That’s gotta be a nice treat for folks who typically miss out on NWF

Just now, BretWx said:

GEFS: 

Incredibly bullish

Feeling optimistic here in eastern Burke. Several inches of snow with a coating of sleet were the sledding conditions dreams were made of as a child 

The gfs has been absurdly consistent the past 4-5 runs. 

GFS remains bullish for western NC. It hasn’t blinked yet.

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

The good news is that it looks like models underestimated the high pressure in the north. Could be the reason for the cooling trend in the 6z  models. 

CAD always seems to come in stronger than modeled. That’s why I won’t buy the complete takeover by sleet east of the mountains just yet for any period of time. 

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

I thought the GFS looked much better wrt track purposes. A bit east once it reaches the VA Beach area. Any tick helps 

Much better hit for WNC on that run

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

What  dry slot? 

The one approaching SW NC in this frame 

Hate the look of that dry slot on the NAM in WNC. Hopefully there will be some back building but that can always be the fly in the ointment for these setups.

This is a good run imo. One thing that worries me is that classic and pesky dry slot that keeps showing up consistently. 

A bit quicker with the onset.

12Z GFS:

Make sure you’re seated when you look at the Icon and the comma head on the backside

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains 

NAM’s track didn’t match what should be the surface output. I don’t think I’d read too deep at 84 hr. If that track holds, it’s hammer time.

GFS says the mountains may be measuring in feet. Goodness what a run!

 baby steps but definitely steps

Itching to read the afternoon disco from GSP

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We are coming to a consensus.  The mountains are the place to be for this storm. Hands down. 

Copy and paste that to the other thread 

*grabs popcorn 

Roads may be in much worse shape for the upstate and foothills than even the mountains if the euro/gfs are correct. Mid 20s, half a foot of snow, 2+ inches of sleet will lock things down for a while.