BooneWX

Yep. We’re all in on a phase or bust with us. A couple of Mets like Webb keep saying they expect robust overrunning to start showing up when the CAMs are in range. The jet streak depicted on most models is very favorable so we have that. I wouldn’t expect globals to show overrunning at this range either.

To be fair, the Euro isn’t close on the phase timing or tilt. If it’s right, it’s game over except for the immediate coast.

Interesting to see the amount of big hits from the Canadian Ensembles. Probably hanging on to lost hope but we’re also at a point where options still seem to be on the table. 7/20 are massive hits locally 12/20 decent event or better 8/20 no dice

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It’s all noise until king NAM comes into range

Yea this one is going to sting big time lol. We’ll be due at some point and I don’t want to hear a thing about how unfair it is, when it’s our time.

Canadian a tick further sw with that northern energy

GFS ticked towards the Canadian a bit, as did the NAM at range. Let’s see if the Canadian keeps putting the chips on the table.

We want big dogs only. Time to eat. No pups allowed in this room.

Yep, started strong, didn’t end well

Well get ready because it looks much improved at 96hrs

Fwiw, the NAM at range favors the CMC with the energy

Everything except the Canadian misses the phase and you end up with a flatter, weaker system that can’t blossom precip or drive north. The phase or lack thereof will determine if we’re in or out in the coming days.

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Hell I’d take that now. .3” with 20:1 ratios is a big event.

It’s on an island by itself right now but this is a solution that most of us should root for. No track change but add in the full phase and we’d all get to eat with little consequence.

I was pretty pessimistic yesterday but this morning there’s a New England meltdown occurring among weenies on X. They’re mad because…wait for it….the Canadian was right all along for their weekend system

I’ll say this. I agree with @NorthHillsWx. Being in the bullseye at day 4 for a southern storm is usually a death wish.

Are we sure these are trends nw or just better precip coverage? Seems more like the latter to me.

Canadian or bust! If we get a full phase we’d be in the game but the Canadian is on an island at the moment.

This storm won’t bug me because others scored. I’ll be super happy for those folks and fellow weenies. What will grind my gears is getting a warm air aloft sleet fest a week before when even .2qpf gets me almost 4 inches in this setup.

This storm will be hitting a frigid wall. I doubt the typical NW trend ensues, but if it does, I’ll wishcast it about 200 miles nw of its current position.

I wouldn’t be fretting east of Greensboro and Charlotte. Just imo! I think the precip field ends up being more expansive.

I think what we’re hoping for right now has less to do with the track of low (seems rather baked in) and more to do with dynamics. There is a scenario (Canadian) where we could pull off a nice event locally, purely based on overrunning precip. Not totally out on that solution but when the Canadian is the only one in that camp, I’m less than enthused.

I am by no means cliff diving. That would typically include an emotionally charged rant where I’m screaming at the sky. I’ve seen enough on the models to say that the higher likelihood is a northern stream dominated system which will keep some of us out of the game. Trust me, I’ll be here like the weather sicko I am, rooting for @GaWxand others. Would I love to see a board wide hit? Absolutely. But unless we get more involvement from the Baja low and maintain the track (hard to do both) - no board wide win is happening.