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BlunderStorm

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  1. BlunderStorm
    Hopefully not stealing Holston's thunder but from what I saw it looks like an App runner in the same general time frame. It lays down a little snow but the lows placement makes it a welcome but minor event. Not what we want but definitely in line with stovepipes words. EDIT: I rescind my prior statement on the App Runner the website I use reverts to a prior run if you are past where it has initialized the present one. EDIT 2: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2020122012/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20201224-1800z.html @Carvers Gap
  2. BlunderStorm
    The RGEM at the end of it's run looks to be in nearly perfect agreement with the CMC fwiw. Not sure if they are normally that in sync.
  3. BlunderStorm
    0z Canadian also takes a step towards the GFS in terms of time frame and vice versa by a matter of a few hours.
  4. BlunderStorm
    0z GFS is underwhelming but sticks to a similar solution to it's prior run. It's got all of the progression from the previous run with less cold to back it up. (At least initially)
  5. BlunderStorm
    I keep waiting for all the models to almost simultaneously turn away from the event leaving a few of us with flurries. That said looking through the ensemble members I am pleased by what I see at least for 12z and 18z.
  6. BlunderStorm
    I've often wondered if they or another modeling site could implement a map of median snowfall among all the ensemble members for a run. It would prevent distortion from weenie maps and eliminate a lot of wide expanses of sub-inch totals. A single member with snowfall using the average means that areas will be listed with snowfall despite the vast majority of members having it out of the equation. Granted, the mean is still valuable in it's own right showing low likelihood areas still in play.
  7. BlunderStorm
    I think we're all used to getting shafted at this point which makes the potential for a white Christmas all the more alluring yet bothering. In my case, I can only help but feel snubbed the past few years especially with my local climate. Last having recorded a single day snowfall above 3" in March of 2018. Of course, I don't mean to whine and remain optimistic for any potential winter events ahead. Echoing the sentiments of others I am glad we aren't dealing with what we had last year.
  8. BlunderStorm
    Probably the most coveted window for snow in any year. We still have a good amount of variation in timings with the GFS and UKIE hitting earlier. If I had to guess at least in the GFS's case it has to do with it's bias.
  9. BlunderStorm
    Shhh...
  10. BlunderStorm
    The ICON as of the last 2 runs has evolved towards are more favorable solution from last night. It does away with the weak low in the midwest wandering into our back yard and returns to a low in the Canadian shield introducing more cold and advancing the front more quickly with a low developing along the front further south. It still is a mostly rain event on there but I'll take an Appalachian runner with a shot of cold over what it was showing.
  11. BlunderStorm
    GL low looking more wound up on the 0z GFS. Not as potent cold is brought south but more of it though. The front seems more progressive and enters at less of an angle leaving less of a chance for a second southeastern low to develop in time to bump the totals for the forum region. I like the sight of frontal snow on Christmas Eve but I can't help but fear a bust involving cold chasing rain without a more established low.
  12. BlunderStorm
    Dear Santa...
  13. BlunderStorm
    About 15 minutes ago flakes started to mix in. Now all snow. Nice to see but I can only dream of what would have been had it been 10 degrees colder.
  14. BlunderStorm
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 1249 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020 .UPDATE... FOR 06Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... Not a whole lot of change to the forecast this evening. Biggest change was to slightly delay onset of precip across the central east TN Valley and northeast TN by a few hours. Looking at the latest data, still a very difficult forecast in terms of snow potential across the northern Cumberland Plateau and southwest VA. I think the biggest bust potential is across Wise County and Russel County VA, our most northern counties in our CWA. By bust I mean our current snow totals could be too low. However, I just don`t feel confident enough to raise the current totals that are in place. To be honest, we probably won`t have a good grasp on snow totals until we actually see when the changeover occurs. With this event changeover-time is everything. A changeover from rain to snow that occurs just an hour or two earlier could raise snow totals by a few inches and vice versa if changeover is later than expected. The current SPS and snow totals mentioned within still look reasonable so will let it ride for now. Will be closely watching how this event unfolds through the night. SR
  15. BlunderStorm
    Down to 41. Since the arrival of the rain the temperatures have proceeded to drop steadily at a degree an hour. At this rate however the sun will stagnate the drop and the system will have already mostly concluded. Still, it is movement in the right direction and with any luck the drop in temperature will accelerate. On it's own evaporative cooling may give me another degree. Wetbulb is just under 40 with 94% humidity. All the more puzzling is the wind direction from the southwest from deeper in the valley not keeping the temperature at the very least stable. Furthermore if clouds insulate then why were temperatures stable instead of dropping in the first few hours of the night while the sky was still partially uncovered? Me no understand heat dissipation.
  16. BlunderStorm
    Alright, here we go. Snow? IMBY? Will see, Currently 43 and a long way to drop.
  17. BlunderStorm
    Rates will overcome?
  18. BlunderStorm
    I noticed on the latest GFS run the first system that rolls through the midwest is more progressive perhaps introducing less cold to the Tennessee Valley in time for the second system. Another possibility is that with a stronger second system sporting a more defined center of low pressure it acts to warm up the valley without an area of high pressure to the NW reinforcing colder temps. If we were looking at more of a semi Miller A setup like we saw with the Euro last night perhaps it would be manageable for at least the eastern regions but this does not look to be the case with the euro biases and trend as of the 12z run. Instead echoing what Tellico said we may be looking at a weak to marginal slider with potential for snow in high elevations and maybe some lucky areas along I-40 and north. As a side-note the Canadian seems to be in general agreement with the GFS. In the meantime will see what the Euro has to say. On the bright side it would seem we will likely see multiple opportunities as December progresses and the effects of a -NAO and -AO really start to kick in. (fingers crossed)
  19. BlunderStorm
    img_1034[1].jpg
  20. BlunderStorm
    Lacking extensive knowledge of the effects of SSTs in different parts of the oceans and how they affect our weather patterns is a part of the reason you see little traffic in this thread. I can easily give observations, dish out banter and fantasy storms, and even give a rudimentary opinion as to what to expect a few weeks in advance, but beyond that I feel I cannot create a coherent post of value in this thread so I sit in the background instead attempting to learn. In other words I am aware of my own ignorance about the topic so I restrain myself and when I do make a post outside of banter or observations I try my best.
  21. BlunderStorm
    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it.
  22. BlunderStorm
    I had just been in Johnson City as the storms hit around dusk when about 30 minutes into one of the storms it began to hail. Luckily (pun intended) the hail was small and no damage was done to any cars or property at least from what I saw. I would say the hail was roughly a centimeter or a little more in diameter and it lasted around 5 minutes. Once the rain died down a little I came outside it looked like it had snowed in the grass. I thought the novelty of seeing significant snow and hail within a few days was pretty amusing truly March at its finest. Unfortunately I did not have a camera on me at the time so I didn't capture anything. It's also worth mentioning I saw some pretty spectacular streaks of lightning too.
  23. BlunderStorm
    Still plenty of action left for Wilmington. At least you guys have a storm to follow it is pretty frustrating here in the Tennessee Valley with plenty of activity in the ohio valley and southeast. So far annual snowfall has thrown climate out of the window. Heaven forbid more than an inch of snow falls here. Still it does put a smile on my face when places like Tallahassee, Valdosta, and Savannah see snow. Even if it means sub-zero temps for me.
  24. BlunderStorm
    My love and interest in weather has always existed in me. Being a teenager my interest was only truly brought to the forefront less than three years ago during the February 2015 North American Cold Wave. To be exact it was the President's Day Snowstorm of 2015. I remember Sunday, February 15, vividly with anticipation as winter storm "Octavia" termed by the weather channel was on the march east. The snow on radar at one point spanned from Denver, Colorado to Roanoke, Virginia. That night and the next morning I binge watched the weather channel. During that night in fact as I was browsing I happened upon a forum called American Weather. The storm arrived Monday and the school had closed in advance of the storm due to President's Day. Around 10:30 A.M. the flakes started falling and they did not stop until late in the night. On Tuesday I awoke to a winter wonderland with just over a foot of snow on the ground. School remained closed for the rest of the month and multiple winter storms accompanied by arctic cold would follow in it's wake leaving a snow pack on the ground well into March. From there each year onward my interest in weather increased. Surprisingly I would remain a lurker on this site until this year.
  25. BlunderStorm
    Would this work? http://compressimage.toolur.com/
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