STILL N OF PIKE

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-pulls-plug-on-some-coronavirus-emergency-lending-programs-over-feds-objections-11605826491?mod=home-page Seems to me Treasury wants the 455 billion back so they can use it toward a stimulus IMO ASAP Those fed programs were barely being used if I recall correctly , the Fed was not initiating small business loans at all to keep business going W these programs and if they state they wanted them “in case” I have no idea what case they were waiting for to initiate the loan programs but they were way 2 stringent W those particular credit facilities and were holding up 455 B.

Closing everything but ski resorts . Stimulus to be used for snow making

32 and partial sunshine.

Germany gave up on it after trying. Seems like it would have been most effective in USA if we did it mid summer before the summer mini spike that occurred and then later formed a higher "base case plateau" for this fall one to build off. Wasn't happening with Trumpy.

Delivering a message with the goal of altering behavior toward something deemed more desirable is sometimes a delicate balance. This is the case whether you are trying to get Young male drivers to be more careful or to make people take precautions that keep them more distant from others due to a virus The later however..is much more complicated and opens up a whole can of worms with regard to the range of behavior responses which is dependent on many variables (not limited to but including) the amount of repetition (of a message), the amount of anxiety it can and will provoke in a individual which can overwhelm a decision making process, as well as coping mechanisms of denial, and other issues like creating isolation that causes depression. It's really very fascinating to me as Psychology is always very interesting to me. Fear appeals work. I wouldn't deem them inappropriate but they can be abused and its a delicate balance and especially so when you are dealing with a issue that is bound to have a very large variation regarding individuals psychological impact . Seeing them in action reminds me of the saying "in order to make an omelette you gotta break a few eggs" Some folks have cracked (I.E developed legit anxiety disorders from Covid) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1090198120935073

Which is why a lack of a targeted stimulus via PPP/PUA should have massive protests and Congress thrown out . Otherwise restrictions just leads to forced poverty and suffering of other groups , which i think highlights the shallowness of the inequality movement AND a lack of awareness of Covid economic effects. Nobody seems to realize that Covid and lockdowns and lack of stimulus since August has tremendously widened wealth inequality in a year when people and corporations act like they care bc it’s “in”. Lots of people have various stressors in their lives and this tremendous cost of Covid being borne in certain industries (which minorities are over represented) just isn’t Brought up in the news cycle to raise awareness.

Anything new on ensembles

I was trying to generate discussion just like this I had read the UK was already seeing signs of a peak (lowered transmission rates I believe ) right Before the lockdowns began , I don’t have much else to add as I’m not aware of the attitudes of folks in those countries or their governments measures , thou I recall reading that Spain measures were sort of Draconian in a Wall Street chart comparing the different levels of shutdowns and restrictions in all countries.

Just like much higher numbers were telegraphed in US Covid data couple weeks again it’s now clear and good news that Germany Spain UK France All above countries are now on a clear downswing of their second wave Peak) Italy appears to have peaked last week as well How much lower from the peak they can trend and for how long will be interesting to follow given winter upon us , Do they go down another 25% or plateau soon At a relatively high level and head up again

I will be going skiing in NH this year , as usual Could care less what state license plates I see in parking lot , I’m not hugging folks on the trails And I would believe nobody is skiing with a fever and even if they did , i won’t be around them either way . Hope I see every state represented in parking lot over the season and lots of folks can enjoy it . Most could use the exercise and fresh air .

Look at Vail Resorts recent movement since Vaccine news (ticker symbol: MTN) Ditto Hotels and Airlines , those seem to move in line also with a stock like BKNG (Booking . com) That stock is not a bad one to throw out a few OTM short dated calls or puts ...that has made huge money with its volatility in options just in the last few months as it's a 2000 $ stock.

Can’t argue that . You are right . It’s just probably gonna plateau for a while as Covid success is priced in.

Modernas success is already baked into share price TBIO is a good spot to invest So long as the peer review of Pfizer / Moderna coming shortly validates the Messenger RNA platform TBIO is a very good R/R profile And Great investment . TBIO’s whole platform was based on this new messenger RNA technology for Many different and future vaccines . This is not a Covid play but Those vaccines efficacy will validate TBIO’s platform . Large Investors already see the Interm phase 3 results as reasons to accumulate TBIO and long time whale investor Seth Klarman owns 25% of TBIO stock. A nice endorsement.

The one eyed pig ...better leave by early December on models I planned on escaping SNE winters with frequent trips ...now I would have to drive to Hudson Bay

They had a PR presser to goose prices and then did a stock offering I believe . We should hope the Peer Review as the details of the phase 3 data comes out ..is still very favorable

Ya, the call option premiums were pricey . Bought MRNA calls and TBIO as well . A lady I train works for them (TBIO) and they use same m rna platform so this sort of validates the platform and makes them a potential buy out candidate if they have their crap together . NVAX hopefully dips I believe they will have the most “useful supply of a successful vaccine “ Fascinating that tech has fallen on good vaccine news since last Monday . Huge valuations now may flow somewhere else .

The way the roll out goes, Many people that would rather wait A bit longer before trying vaccine ..will have to anyway . It will be given to health care and elderly first (assuming that data is favorable when peer reviewed ..) And then those folks can get their wish and see how it works on others regarding any of their concerns . The only concern I would have is If I was looking to have a baby/ fertility Concerns . I’ve seen cases where those effects take lots of time to create enough evidence that is beyond circumstantial and by then it’s too late , but that is not my personal concern .

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-shares-soar-premarket-after-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-achieves-945-efficacy-in-phase-3-trial-2020-11-16?mod=home-page Moderna

X 100 Haven’t been in this thread a while . looks Fugly , thankfully seasonal forecasting has big holes . Isotherm forecast looks good for Gradient winters in New England , seems to me many will have their hopes up higher than they should bc they are in northern SNE, when you want to me north of Winny . Ill take a lockdown, 20 K in stimulus payments and a three month rental in Jay or Somewhere elevated N of Jackson with people .

Was he controversial on twitter , I have no clue other than checking for his pattern recognition stuff every 2 weeks . Never saw any other non weather stuff Maybe he is leaving like DIT leaves ? But I assume it’s permanent

Walking into PF right now Also Cranxywxguy has retired from twitter I really enjoyed his medium term outlooks And pattern recognition in the 2-4 week period . Didn’t use him for the short term stuff .

Ready for another zoom GTG

That jay peak base spot is silly Is that a condo on the mountain 2k or just nearby around 1700-1800’ or so

Isn’t that what everyone who is decent has to say thou or at least convince themselves , Not like you can say “I wish i could go back and not really have them they were a surprise “ . Not a bad attitude , but to be a good parent I believe you sort of have to think that way . As a trainer , when I speak with women (they speak- I just Listen/ “Therapy” . I will say with high confidence these days ..the overwhelming majority are looking to get out of the house for any reason to have a break from the kids and the husband and the 24/7 Joy of everyone being home all the time. It’s badddd and it’s manifesting in bottles of wine . For those that were hanging on , or it worked bc they each had their own lives , these are extremely trying times. The wine consumption is the smoking gun