STILL N OF PIKE

My guess is to take the under If your thinking above 3” There is a good GYX Paper on upslope Snows in N NH and NW Maine and some discussion on the factors that differentiate the small to medium events with the very rare larger event and where they tend to max and what factors to look for . You would probably enjoy the read as you will have several events . https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta2009-03.pdf

so does 6z gfs

Yes. The Cam Newton party is over. Like it or not, the QB usually gets most of the success and blame. He has to turn it around really fast. Based on Gilmore on the chopping/trading block to Bears...we are willing to fold this year

Is it snowing in Denver . Man they get bitter cold for 5.2 k in October .

Outfielder boots ball Base runner rounding third trips and falls heading home Catcher turns to tag a runner that isn't there and does so before he has ball in glove and ball deflects far away Runner gets up and then scores

I do understand your sentiment on some aspects of this . For elderly thou , that is the one age group where this is actually very dangerous ... Now ..if we reach next winter , and the vaccine is say 50 % effective, the IFR is down even a tad more ..and this becomes a very annual thing w lockdowns and restrictions ..I will very much go on living my life ..as I did before, I just will continue to be very mindful of elderly . I already believe Covid is being ..leveraged. My posts about the positive case growth and numbers And trends in USA , Europe and coming hospitalizations and what I see coming down the pike the last two days is not from the angle of I support all the policies that have just decimated some industries for good at a time when Congress lack of continued action Which has really led to tremendous increase in financial inequality if you are in those industries . You can’t do lockdowns without continued full financial support of workers in industries that are decimated and forced into closure , failure . You need to buy these people time to retrain their job skills. Bigger picture there are some larger changes afoot, We are certainly entering the Technotronic era as Zigbinew Bryzenski excitedly describes in the out of print ..” Between two ages” Covid is a opportunity and no good opportunity goes to waste unless people are very naive .

Didn’t realize this was a thing tonite

I wouldn’t either .but mainly for the initial fall spike I have concerns that concurrent FLU / Covid infections and to a unknown extent VIT D deficiency (Normal in winter ) Will be factors that will cancel that out when by the time we reach later in fall . Either way we’ll see , hope for the best , and pray for snow . If my Job goes remote , I’ve been looking for a 3 month rental in NNE At decent elevation .

Yes CFR has . I mean we were only testing the sick last spring and really the very sick . Treatments had improved as well, but those treatments still require hospitalization. I don’t believe the CFR thou will be much different from the summer mini spike .

I do and that is from the increase in testing we saw that really began this summer . 70-75 K New cases in July peak still brought 1200-1300 deaths in August mini peak . We will see a similar relationship Bear out by Thanksgiving. I understand colleges are testing more the last several weeks . Again I’m going out and enjoying myself in what I believe is a way I’m comfortable with and Responsible and living my life ..having fun. Anyway I’m at Nahant on the rocks for a swell and I don’t want to bog this down . Everyone have a great day , no harm meant with these posts

I’ve looked at the charts . I understand them very well . I would suggest you go back and look closer At new cases per day. USA cases peaked in July Around 75K Then fell for several weeks With a bit of a plateau around 45 k into September , deaths peaked in August (3-4 weeks after daily case peak) then fell. New daily Cases began rising notably in late September and have picked up steam this Last 2 weeks this month considerably to 80K . Deaths will be 1300 or so in 3.5 weeks . I’m not terrified of this virus in the least but I would bet anyone on the numbers .

Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks You can’t really say anything about deaths not matching cases for a couple more weeks . Hospitalizations rise approximately 10 days after positive cases and Deaths 3 week lag after cases. I am certainly not a alarmist with this stuff . Watch Italy deaths on worldometers site in about 10-days to 2 weeks . They should double easily on a daily rate and probably quadruple in 4 weeks . The numbers will rise after the election the media will cover it , and yes Biden won’t be a punching bag but the numbers are still going up and will . Based on the mini USA summer Spoke and the lag in deaths , 80-85k cases a day will translate to 1300 -1400 deaths a day and my guess is we will be up near 2k by Xmas . The data correlates pretty clearly and one could argue that mortality rates could be boosted in winter due to more concurrent infection of Covid positive folks ( I.E have flu also ) Also possibly bc there is some data that shows some correlation as the Vitamin D deficiency that spikes in winter and has been postulated to allow the cytokine storm to be more apt to take hold. That last sentence is not scientifically proven and Prob. never will be , basically bc there will never be enough funding dedicated to Provide enough real Data (scientifically ) simply bc the dollars allotted to most research goes to new medicine .

I am a Trainer at a nice little personal training Studio in Mass and the 75 year old ladies are hell bent on working out or have been since we re-opened. They desperately want some sort of social interaction , they basically LIVE to see their grand kids and that has been taken from many of them and there is a very real level of Depression that many elderly are feeling, especially those at nursing homes ...a mix of fear and really loneliness and dispair which i find heart breaking ( I like to joke a lot on here and in life) but it really is a brutal combination of either fear and especially isolation for many elderly that has been the hidden curse that takes the joy that many had in their lives out even if they dodge the Rona. Here is a statistic everyone should be familiar with. It's eye popping .6% of The Us population lives in Elderly care facilities and 40% of Covid deaths occurred there. Read that till it sinks in> That should be the focus for this late fall and winter .

Agreed. I would guess Full remote is coming for Mass by Xmas Break. Anyways, i'm just looking forward to some Snow chances even if i have to drive my car to Cannon mountain parking lot (like i did last weekend lol)

Just making one post ...Not to obsess, but has anyone taken a little peak over in Europe at the Rate of daily Covid cases over the last 3-4 weeks. Italy is up 7x (700%) France, Spain and UK all up 250% or greater in last 3 weeks. I would guess they may foreshadow us to a degree (hopefully a lesser one) And just worth noting as testing has increased, if you were wondering if they were catching mostly mild cases that were hidden...Italian Covid Hospitalization was up 55% in ONE week 0ct 11-18 (last Hospitalization data was released on 18'th) and it's accepted knowledge that Hospitalizations lag new cases by a good 10 days ...I would not be shocked to see their hospital system have De Ja Vu before Thanksgiving.

I thought it was pretty much say you quarantined at home for 14 days before you go, is that not an option any more. I spoke to a couple front desk reps for nice spots in Vermont and when i just said "ya ya level with me" they said " yes that is indeed the case.we ask that nobody not feeling well travels but yes". That was in August but i didn't go because the pool hours were restricted and by appointment only.

Anyone see that 0z GFS run last nite . That shortwave That winds up a tad 2 late traveling from ASH to Just Just N of Eastport was close for elevations in N NH NW Maine .

All political tweeters know their audience is looking for confirmation bias , not to do research on a tweets validity. It’s got to the point I would be skeptical of any tweet from any media outlet because any political media is in a mindset of war right now (politically) , and in addition vast majority of media (mainstream and “alternative”) have a clear bias for ratings which requires emotion (often knee jerk) thru their friends ( fear and division) and they cater to (if not MOLD) their audiences beliefs !, and their corona coverage is a case study in milking the fear button.

Good timing with that big announcement NDQ, SP fell to 50 day M.A and are bouncing this am. Maintaining a risk on stock atmosphere is key to sustaining insane tech bubble valuations, looks to me that no large stimulus in future (which was priced in) is the biggest culprit in ending the concentrated frenzied buying atmosphere that sustained NDQ thru (AAPL/FB/MSFT/AMZN/GOOG) I would anticipate High volatility unless that is passed or even a piece meal bill.

Just saw that. Could be James

We know how it often goes if the people gathering are not liberals, 80% of the media reporting is scare mongering catering to a demographic and I been leaning liberal 35 years of my life but I can still call a spade a spade .

Just best to wait till they go significantly below 2000 tech bubble valuations regardless

Market is barely bouncing off 50 day moving averages after significant 3 day fall . Time for the fed and banks to call “ congress “ into closed door session and explain this System is as fragile as Wylie Coyote regarding current asset values and their importance regarding systematic solvency . They are worried about making interest payments 10 years down road instead of hitting brakes as car is speeding toward a cliff .

You moving to snowier pastures

NASDAQ bubble This Am. Valuations have reached past 2000 Tech bubble at a time when we are entering the most economic uncertainty of a winter ..ever after worst GDP quarter in people's lives. This could facilitate what the market has priced in and is losing patience to see. A 1.5 to 2.5 trillion or greater stimulus bill and money put into citizens hands as consumer spending is collapsing in early Sept. again and tons of business plan to close doors this winter for good. Congress does move when the market falls , but we may need more than a day or two of this to make them move for real..this is probably just their first warning.