STILL N OF PIKE

It’s good to see the old school weenies don’t have their balls in a jar above fridge put there by wife

Almost , but that has seemed like critical mileage in years past

SE mass climo should equal more pessimism.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-geomagnetic-forecast?fbclid=IwAR060vp7iKNJXAPUcImOM7jru65m_4k3qifdeVtWALXfmORFSBLNQ2zC5s8 does this mean best chance is tomorrow after late evening

That SPC discussion sounded yummy . Surface low 125 miles south of Nantucket drifting north w 1-2”/hr rates continuing for hours . Yes, please

A 34 rain sounds lovely .

That was good . Not enough effort is given to these sort of efforts it seems . If someone were to look at the WPC forecasts they never bit on the high amounts outside of the whites and adjacent Maine . I knew they don’t have the resolution to do elevation detail in them outside of Broad hills and mountains but they didn’t bite hard .

Wut time

Good to hear . You don’t live that far from Tobin.

almost has the feeling that this weekend will wind up a net gain up north

There was certainlty a myriad of reason even among different locations To Johns point and what i saw...Some was actually fall rates like KBED. Look at their observations...They had one hour where they exceeded .10 in the bucket after 250pm. That was not going to get it done. If that was known ahead of time nobody would have forecast near 6" for KBED . HRRR seemed to hint at this for that area Sat am. KBED had hourly totals of .09 .10 .15 .08 .03 ending 350 450 550 650 750 .45 over 5 hours of max snow forecast time. Fall rates were an issue in KBED A spot like LWM seemed more like it was more Surface temps as you mentioned .. they were 1f too mild and you needed an extra 250 to 300' to make a difference. I know in Derry a bit NNW of you they did pretty well (around 6") at 400' In Maine CP it seemed definitely more of the issue that LWM had.

PF with the early Xmas gift The Radar loop is fascinating , does the Worcester range to the East play a roll in keeping it stationary?

Thank you that was 8am sat HRRR, the model WDRAG said to monitor for now cast does that not show max lift in DGZ leaving at 20z (4pm) and lift in general going bye bye by 5-530pm (above DGZ) ..isn’t that a big old red flag for a 495 Given what we needed to see maybe I’m wrong since this was posted as a reason for a crushing by someone but I’m not confident in reading that but that is my intuition interpretation How would that chart be interpreted as a crushing for 5-9pm as was forecast

Just gimme a QPF event within 3.5 hours drive time w a low tracking East of Hudson valley and that will work

I know nobody cares but in the name of accuracy my measurements were actually at about 200 feet higher elevation than I thought , going back and cross referencing topo maps and measurements taken at a couple notable spots (where trail bent 180 and Just shy of A pleatau with open view of Monadanock) . My ski tracks altitude wasn’t reading and I shouldn’t have listed the elevation before checking .

At ASH , we got 1 inch QPF After 2pm and it led to maybe an inch of snow for a 1:1 ratio as it was 98% snow lol At Miller state park they had well over a foot at 1600’ (got a settled depth of just over 13”) around that elevation . Much above that was impossible to measure as less trees and serious blowing and drifting on exposed NW spots

You are the New Caretaker at the beautiful Overlook ..view

If post 20z the winds at 850-925 veering to NNW..didn’t seem to effect the QPF that much ..could they have been responsible for a slight moderating of low level temps (via downsloping) when they turned this direction for Central mass over to S NH and why elevation maybe played a even bigger part than forecast for second half . BC Nashua was like 32.5 mid day and then 33.5 34 late pm and evening .

Definitely not driving as they don’t plow this in winter lol. Buried above 1400- 1500’. Drier top half of accums as you go high. Passed a skier and thanked him for his tracks . Just Stopped around 1750’ as drifting became an issue even with someone’s boot tracks to use to climb.

Really? I thought they were frcsting 5" or so This storm was impossible to forecast in CP of Maine

Thank goodness I’m not the first person up this toll road . Able to make a decent pace up. Skier went by a few mins ago lol

Just shy of 11.5” depth at 1365’ @ Miller state park

Just arrived at Miller State park Probably 3 distinct Elevation zones on the way here from Nashua 1. Nashua past Milford and into Wilton (350 elevation and under ) . No snow on trees. Prob saw 3-4” 2. East Central temple . 450 to 750 elevation. Snow increased rapidly on trees and some decent sag was visible , increased w elevation 3. West temple and Miller State park 800-1100 feet . Gorgeous caked trees . White everywhere glaring in the sun light . Heading up .

I remember making a comment 2 days ago about a NNW wind direction from surface to 850 on models as max lift was suppose to arrive 18z to past 0 z (stinger) that did not materialize as forecast up to the event . Radar became a bit hit and miss but no death bands set up. 1/2 mile vis Snow didn’t cut it and it was sort of a double whammy effect on 2m temps (which didn’t have wiggle room in Merrimack valley ) . Overall thou ..I mean we got snow in a garbage airmass . I just don’t enjoy spending xyz hours time looking at models and trying to learn and then have sort of meh reasons for a model and forecast fail for my general area down thru metro west , given how things looked at 2pm I’m trying to learn and I’m not trying to make it look like folks missed something

Having my coffee prior to Heading west to Miller State Park. Got coffee, Hiking clothes, and a ruler. LMAO. I look normal. Should be there by 9am. Lets see how high i can get as the base probably did well but ratio's probably increased with elevation.