STILL N OF PIKE

Didn’t realize this was a thing tonite

I wouldn’t either .but mainly for the initial fall spike I have concerns that concurrent FLU / Covid infections and to a unknown extent VIT D deficiency (Normal in winter ) Will be factors that will cancel that out when by the time we reach later in fall . Either way we’ll see , hope for the best , and pray for snow . If my Job goes remote , I’ve been looking for a 3 month rental in NNE At decent elevation .

Yes CFR has . I mean we were only testing the sick last spring and really the very sick . Treatments had improved as well, but those treatments still require hospitalization. I don’t believe the CFR thou will be much different from the summer mini spike .

I do and that is from the increase in testing we saw that really began this summer . 70-75 K New cases in July peak still brought 1200-1300 deaths in August mini peak . We will see a similar relationship Bear out by Thanksgiving. I understand colleges are testing more the last several weeks . Again I’m going out and enjoying myself in what I believe is a way I’m comfortable with and Responsible and living my life ..having fun. Anyway I’m at Nahant on the rocks for a swell and I don’t want to bog this down . Everyone have a great day , no harm meant with these posts

I’ve looked at the charts . I understand them very well . I would suggest you go back and look closer At new cases per day. USA cases peaked in July Around 75K Then fell for several weeks With a bit of a plateau around 45 k into September , deaths peaked in August (3-4 weeks after daily case peak) then fell. New daily Cases began rising notably in late September and have picked up steam this Last 2 weeks this month considerably to 80K . Deaths will be 1300 or so in 3.5 weeks . I’m not terrified of this virus in the least but I would bet anyone on the numbers .

Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks You can’t really say anything about deaths not matching cases for a couple more weeks . Hospitalizations rise approximately 10 days after positive cases and Deaths 3 week lag after cases. I am certainly not a alarmist with this stuff . Watch Italy deaths on worldometers site in about 10-days to 2 weeks . They should double easily on a daily rate and probably quadruple in 4 weeks . The numbers will rise after the election the media will cover it , and yes Biden won’t be a punching bag but the numbers are still going up and will . Based on the mini USA summer Spoke and the lag in deaths , 80-85k cases a day will translate to 1300 -1400 deaths a day and my guess is we will be up near 2k by Xmas . The data correlates pretty clearly and one could argue that mortality rates could be boosted in winter due to more concurrent infection of Covid positive folks ( I.E have flu also ) Also possibly bc there is some data that shows some correlation as the Vitamin D deficiency that spikes in winter and has been postulated to allow the cytokine storm to be more apt to take hold. That last sentence is not scientifically proven and Prob. never will be , basically bc there will never be enough funding dedicated to Provide enough real Data (scientifically ) simply bc the dollars allotted to most research goes to new medicine .

I am a Trainer at a nice little personal training Studio in Mass and the 75 year old ladies are hell bent on working out or have been since we re-opened. They desperately want some sort of social interaction , they basically LIVE to see their grand kids and that has been taken from many of them and there is a very real level of Depression that many elderly are feeling, especially those at nursing homes ...a mix of fear and really loneliness and dispair which i find heart breaking ( I like to joke a lot on here and in life) but it really is a brutal combination of either fear and especially isolation for many elderly that has been the hidden curse that takes the joy that many had in their lives out even if they dodge the Rona. Here is a statistic everyone should be familiar with. It's eye popping .6% of The Us population lives in Elderly care facilities and 40% of Covid deaths occurred there. Read that till it sinks in> That should be the focus for this late fall and winter .

Agreed. I would guess Full remote is coming for Mass by Xmas Break. Anyways, i'm just looking forward to some Snow chances even if i have to drive my car to Cannon mountain parking lot (like i did last weekend lol)

Just making one post ...Not to obsess, but has anyone taken a little peak over in Europe at the Rate of daily Covid cases over the last 3-4 weeks. Italy is up 7x (700%) France, Spain and UK all up 250% or greater in last 3 weeks. I would guess they may foreshadow us to a degree (hopefully a lesser one) And just worth noting as testing has increased, if you were wondering if they were catching mostly mild cases that were hidden...Italian Covid Hospitalization was up 55% in ONE week 0ct 11-18 (last Hospitalization data was released on 18'th) and it's accepted knowledge that Hospitalizations lag new cases by a good 10 days ...I would not be shocked to see their hospital system have De Ja Vu before Thanksgiving.

I thought it was pretty much say you quarantined at home for 14 days before you go, is that not an option any more. I spoke to a couple front desk reps for nice spots in Vermont and when i just said "ya ya level with me" they said " yes that is indeed the case.we ask that nobody not feeling well travels but yes". That was in August but i didn't go because the pool hours were restricted and by appointment only.

Anyone see that 0z GFS run last nite . That shortwave That winds up a tad 2 late traveling from ASH to Just Just N of Eastport was close for elevations in N NH NW Maine .

All political tweeters know their audience is looking for confirmation bias , not to do research on a tweets validity. It’s got to the point I would be skeptical of any tweet from any media outlet because any political media is in a mindset of war right now (politically) , and in addition vast majority of media (mainstream and “alternative”) have a clear bias for ratings which requires emotion (often knee jerk) thru their friends ( fear and division) and they cater to (if not MOLD) their audiences beliefs !, and their corona coverage is a case study in milking the fear button.

Good timing with that big announcement NDQ, SP fell to 50 day M.A and are bouncing this am. Maintaining a risk on stock atmosphere is key to sustaining insane tech bubble valuations, looks to me that no large stimulus in future (which was priced in) is the biggest culprit in ending the concentrated frenzied buying atmosphere that sustained NDQ thru (AAPL/FB/MSFT/AMZN/GOOG) I would anticipate High volatility unless that is passed or even a piece meal bill.

Just saw that. Could be James

We know how it often goes if the people gathering are not liberals, 80% of the media reporting is scare mongering catering to a demographic and I been leaning liberal 35 years of my life but I can still call a spade a spade .

Just best to wait till they go significantly below 2000 tech bubble valuations regardless

Market is barely bouncing off 50 day moving averages after significant 3 day fall . Time for the fed and banks to call “ congress “ into closed door session and explain this System is as fragile as Wylie Coyote regarding current asset values and their importance regarding systematic solvency . They are worried about making interest payments 10 years down road instead of hitting brakes as car is speeding toward a cliff .

You moving to snowier pastures

NASDAQ bubble This Am. Valuations have reached past 2000 Tech bubble at a time when we are entering the most economic uncertainty of a winter ..ever after worst GDP quarter in people's lives. This could facilitate what the market has priced in and is losing patience to see. A 1.5 to 2.5 trillion or greater stimulus bill and money put into citizens hands as consumer spending is collapsing in early Sept. again and tons of business plan to close doors this winter for good. Congress does move when the market falls , but we may need more than a day or two of this to make them move for real..this is probably just their first warning.

What Putts by Johnson and John Rahm 66 footer to win ! $$

I believe People want a peaceful rural escape and many are willing to take the chance wether sking is open or not if they can work from home. I would call it “Stress management” and it’s in huge demand . People can only down booze for so long as a strategy lol.

One reason for optimism or a preview of how the ski season could go is a look at how a Australian ski resort is doing (owned by Vail Resorts)..granted the numbers in Australia are pedestrian and about equal to Massachusetts lately https://www.parkrecord.com/news/a-vail-resorts-mountain-in-australia-could-offer-preview-of-socially-distanced-park-city-ski-season/ Chile and Argentina on the other hand are getting dumped on and many not open, thou some are for locals , as Covid numbers are much higher . I would imagine many NY state residents and Mass residents may see restrictions At NNE mountains , especially if they are from counties w higher numbers . https://www.powderhounds.com/SouthAmerica/2020-Season-News.aspx

I would say everything is on the table . There are zero certainties this winter. As a resort , which ones does it make financial sense for to shut down lodges, hotels / condos and leave the lifts spinning..are their any? I could see that coming when people are sneezing in every long line indoors this winter . The ones like Cannon and Wildcat probably see the most money as a percentage of total operations from their season pass holders as they don’t have much else going on besides selling beers and burgers . Thou if they aren’t owned by the big wigs they may not Have the $$ Cushion to handle a down year . Powder freak , any thoughts .

My hope is to be able to ski NH for the full season and hopefully stay up north for any large snow storms where i'm able. As far as that goes or especially out of state skiing ..i'm not very optimistic but i just don't see lodges being open past New Years. Just let the coughing begin, the news will smell the fear and report endlessly as fear sells clicks and 1/4 the population will go back into a state of news induced paralysis . What remains of the economy in April should be fun to see. I don't know that cases will soar, they may but the fear of any cough being covid seems baked into the cake . That's my base case scenario as Covid 19 response , just has too much potential to facilitate some pain that will facilitate future change that seems to be tied into other societal, climate, economic-technotronic and Covid group think solutions.(that may not otherwise be agreed upon w out various issues being magnified and all will seem fine with public when they camp out in front of the news all day all day, encouraging folks into what are acceptable/preferred ideas. The Global economic forum head Klaus Schwab is just very vocal , open and optimistic about these issue being in the forefront of the public mind and it works into the media's mindset for ratings to leverage these issues all day long perpetually, not to sound nefarious just sort of what is . He wrote a book called the great reset which is a pretty straight forward look into shaping the future in a sustainable way and covid's role. I would avoid the knee-jerk conspiratorial perspectives/ ideas ...thats not my angle..and read the actual book, i just believe this is a noteworthy possibility not a lock. Shaping society and governance over 7 billion people can not always be straight forward, transparent and done without significant suffering. It is worth noting the World Economic Forum often has lofty goals and ideas that move much slower or not at all, it just seems public perception and attention is aligned much better now for ...progress

chilly day