I’m a little over my head but it looked like the upper level view of this system favored a low (further north) very close to the S coast
the late east drift ..well once that gains steam its usually tough to bring back significantly . Capture S of Nova Scotia with a weenie band probably pinwheeling down thru parts of coastal Maine and maybe some of cape.
I’ve seen euro ensembles swing all at once many times when the OP does shift even 50 miles , I wish the ensembles were able to account for a bit more differences in future Op run variance given what I’ve seen