the_other_guy

this is their 2015. wow this wasn’t the worst December around, the end of it and the transition to January thus far is horrendous.

well, if you look at a place like Belleayre, they have really invested over the last several summers in new piping and pumping capabilities because they know when it is cold they have to be able to blow huge amounts of snow in very short periods of time. I would argue that the larger ski areas up north are really going to be affected once the snow and cold temperatures go away. It is easy to blanket a smaller resort like Hunter with man-made snow not so easy for a whiteface or Gore or Killington. For the first 20 years of my life, we went up to Lake Placid every December to ski at Whiteface. Cold and snow and a frozen lake were a lock. I can’t even remember the last time Lake Placid had a good Christmas week. If you want to see something scary, go onto whitefacemoutain.com/webcams. it left an impression on me. It looks like a dystopian future hanging on to shreds of a ski resort.

Sun angle…

I mean, looks bad to start January. We have 10 weeks from January 1 to have a winter. If what Im looking at today is correct (always a big if) we are down to 8.5 weeks to have a winter. Just a game of attrition. On a more global scale, NYC has a 15 week snowfall season. Last week of November thru second week of March. By Jan 7, we are 6 weeks in. It’s like a baseball game the Mets are playing, the Jets in December, or the Knicks with Dolan as owner. Could work, but if you have been around a while, you can start calling these things before half time or the 7th inning stretch I personally would feel better if December produced anything. Better historical data to cling to

Right. But then the question becomes how many, how much and for how long. Snowless Ninos dont usually become prolonged winters

The Winter is already a punt. Cruising towards AN temps and BN snow. Questions are: do we get a few snow events or one snow event? Are any of those a blockbuster like 2016? January opens at a solid +5 for those celebrating the pattern change

Forget snow. When is next day CPK goes below freezing?

OK, but you’re going for one offs then. Even Washington gets blizzards with two or 3 feet of snow every now and then. What are you seeing on This board is a majority of people that have not accepted the fact that winter is warm now. they’re getting angry because they expect three months of winter to act differently than the other nine months of the year. They are expecting frequent, frozen precipitation and below freezing weather, and they are expecting temperatures to run out or below normal for extended periods of time. That isn’t going to happen. There may be some great winter in the future that stands out from all of this… but what has become clear to anybody that wants to see it is that we are running 3 to 5° above normal. And when normal was mid 30s, that’s a really big fucking problem if you like winter weather. through January 10 I see slightly above normal temperatures. I’m sure we could pick something off. it’s possible. but if you’re looking for 1 to 3 inches here and another 1-3 inches there like its 1986 and looking out at 10 or 11 days of some snow cover on the ground in an urban environment, you are dreaming. Instead you will get a larger storm that manufactures it’s own cold air that falls and kind of disappears within a few days. And if you have a good season and the storm track sets up just right, you fall into an Atlantic City situation where you get a number of these type if storms.

True. But the next 93-94 will feature a VA type climate.

It was cold then and warm now. this is simply unprecedented in terms of extended warmth over multiple seasons. Nina, Nino, Neutral, MJO, doesnt really matter. Its warm. Even with this pattern change, I don’t see one below normal or even normal day over the next 15

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split. Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing. That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

Merry Christmas everyone! 40F in Westchester!

Somebody posted a pic of a snowy train coming out of Grand Central in the early 90s. and a lot of the comments in the general public were oh that’s when it used to snow in New York. People are starting to notice now. It takes a while for the general public to notice, but people are really starting to. I’ll go with my old adage… December is snowless the winter ahead is gonna be shit. Better hope for a one hit wonder because that’s probably it if we haven’t had snow by December 31

List the ones that were bad. We did this already. You got your Nino reset. Lets hope it plays out like you want. Id like to see AN snow.

come on, there’s too many opinions, agendas and narratives floating around in between factual truth. don’t confuse the two or the arguments that are going on because of one not the other. Too many supposed experts, are making this Dec 2015 or 1997 with little factual evidence to back themselves up. that is where the arguments ensue, not over the facts

Option 2. El Niños are always bad, and it’s amplified with CC

that’s correct. Minnesota is in the bull’s-eye now and in 2015 we were in the bull’s-eye. I believe that blizzard in 2015-2016 that saved the season involved a lot of luck. I only say that because we really didn’t have any snow or any winter weather outside of that and a cold snap in February that lasted for a few days. I wouldn’t look for something like that to happen again this year. It would be too coincidental. Ninos are often known for their one hit wonders. The question is how big that hit will be.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/21/weather/us-winter-temperatures-climate-change/index.html Article has some good nuggets imbedded with the fluff

22F this morning. I imagine we drop another degree or two. that would make it one of the coldest nights of the season thus far.

+3 is insane? Novel I would say precip amounts insane.

Almost every month is 1-3 AN. Dont know why guys expect 3 months of winter to be different than the other 9 months. Certainly not unusual

It’s 34F with a stiff wind out. I just read the last several posts and I think you guys are in a disturbing echo chamber. I want to know where the grass is green and growing, where its warm, and where it doesnt feel and look like Dec 19th right now. Enjoy the cold week Gloomy Doomys. It will be rainy and 50 next week

it’s gonna be quite the cold week. Just let’s have some patience.

I’ve lived on the beach in Wading River since the mid 80s. Our worst damage was never summer hurricanes, but winter noreasters. The hurricanes are less frequent and tend to be weakening By the time they reach us. The winter storms are strengthening as they reach us and cause huge amounts of erosion