the_other_guy

there’s one of our patented two day cold snaps next week with a storm approaching… anyone dismissing the chance of our first snow 8 days out is ridiculous. I’ve seen guys get more excited over a plot on a chart 13 days out. Track this a bit The late January early February, one shot guys haven’t been paying attention this fall. This is not a normal or typical El Niño thus far.

Flurries JFK

25F heavy frost this morning. Always before a warm-up. At least the dog shit was easy to pull off my neighbors frozen lawn.

Good article on CNN about NOAA snowfall charts for last 50 years. One of the graphics tells the story

No, we should all be as miserable as the few that wait for record warmth in one of our seldom BN months. Oh look… some model with a questionable track record has warmth Mid December! Its over, told you. Lights out, death to winter. :/ We are the new Norfolk…yea!

+.8, +2.5, -2…the endless summer 2023 Just went below freezing again. Hopefully NYC does it tonight!

I can’t wait for the next warm month so I can hear you guys talk about how much you wish for a -2 month like this one will be Happy Thanksgiving! Good night for the Tree!

anybody remember a snow squall white out situation on Thanksgiving eve?would’ve been mid early/mid 90s mid afternoon

And thats pretty damn cool for the 2010s and 2020s my friend. with quite a cold week ahead to finish the month

enough already they’re pushing a narrative. It’s 41° out at noon. They’re looking at specific days and saying it’s not as cold as it was supposed to be. it absolutely is. the models just don’t know the day of the week to the exact perfection that they would like. Another night well below freezing I haven’t seen a November this cold in a long time. AND… starting Friday there’s a distinct possibility of an extended period of time where every night is below freezing for the suburbs.

32F this morning. Nice cold November, too many people keep talking about hypothetical warmth. stop making yourself miserable and enjoy whats around you outside! I can’t remember the last time I had so many nights below freezing in November

Funny I started below and went above forecast

Another night below freezing! Blew right past the forecast too! 30F

as of now, you mean another transient cold shot with normal or slightly below or above normal temperatures right after. Just to clarify.

Still 10 days away as I told you last time you promised me record heat. need to stop preaching gospel beyond 5 days

I need to get the working theory on this forum to wrap my head around why the city can’t freeze anymore… They don’t radiate because of the UHI and need winds from the northwest to freeze?

You live in the hottest place in the region. Sucks

I was in nursery school in 1987. They closed the school in the middle of the day and my father had to come get me. It was the first time I remember getting stuck in the snow in a car. I remember my father telling me we have a foot of snow on the ground. I couldnt believe it. I still remember the awe that I felt looking at all that snow and the fear of the car getting stuck 35 years later.

39F this morning to start this mild day

He has a long personal history here. The old saying you reap what you sow applies. Back to weather, cooler this morning in metro area than in BTV. Interesting!

and the problem with trying to quantify that : there is no statistical reasoning why it’s happening. That’s why it’s hard to actually put that fact into a bullet point. the fact is that for the last several years, there seems to be a warm-up just before Christmas with little scientific reason for it. I would say the most concerning thing I see going into the winter is that these cold shots seem to be very transient in nature again. I was 36° when I went to bed and the warm air moved in and it’s already up to 39 and there was no warm front. Just an aggressive movement of warm air to push out short-term cold air which we’ve been seeing over the last few years. also, concerning is the city just doesn’t seem to get cold anymore. I jumped 10° the minute I crossed into the Bronx. that’s very concerning and it’s almost like an urban heat island on steroids

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet. Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

27F. Blew right thru the forecasted low. Glad JFK and EWR did it. Im not surprised by JFK. That is the airport that radiates best due to its location

You can see the UHI at LGA and why they wont get below freezing tonight. I like JFK though for the city

you guys are pushing a narrative that is way out. Just like five days ago you were pushing for record warmth at the end of this week… That isn’t gonna happen. Stop getting wrapped up in things that are 10 or 15 days away.there is no accuracy just trends. A good prediction is that every month going forward is going to be a little above normal. Some will be very above normal. Some will be slightly below normal.