the_other_guy

if you live in the suburbs, you’ll be below freezing on the first. But I get your point.

never really works out like that though for them. If they get snow and we don’t, it’s because the storm went out to sea below us. It is very rare where they are getting snow, and we are getting rain simply because they are so much warmer than us. It almost discounts the fact that they are a bit west, and inland.

they will be less affected by AGW than us in terms of cold lows. They don’t have an urban heat island, and they are inland. What is missing in this discussion is that the days that go below freezing have the potential to be much lower up here than they do down there. what is alarming is how few days New York City is now going below freezing. 8% of days. really on the cusp of saying this is no longer a winter city if this continues unabated Looking into 2024, I dont see many night below freezing for CPK thru mid month

This^

Moving more into a Seattle/London type winter climate with the pac. Interesting turn of events to say the least. I wish the summers would cool down a bit. That would actually make me really happy.

except we’re tracking a storm, right? Too many guys that don’t know what they’re talking about speaking in absolutes on here. and for what it’s worth I agree with you. I think it is toast, but it’s January and we’re not out of it yet.

It just doesnt look that cold through 10th though. Need perfect setups

…and the weeks are ticking by quickly

Actually removing a Dam just north of this photo

Many people dont realize that the Saw Mill Pkwy is actually the Saw Mill River Pkwy. next to it is the Saw Mill River, which at most, is a glorified Brook. It now looks like this once a week. Very sad what’s happening here and very alarming. Anybody that thinks this is in the realm of normal is delusional

this is their 2015. wow this wasn’t the worst December around, the end of it and the transition to January thus far is horrendous.

well, if you look at a place like Belleayre, they have really invested over the last several summers in new piping and pumping capabilities because they know when it is cold they have to be able to blow huge amounts of snow in very short periods of time. I would argue that the larger ski areas up north are really going to be affected once the snow and cold temperatures go away. It is easy to blanket a smaller resort like Hunter with man-made snow not so easy for a whiteface or Gore or Killington. For the first 20 years of my life, we went up to Lake Placid every December to ski at Whiteface. Cold and snow and a frozen lake were a lock. I can’t even remember the last time Lake Placid had a good Christmas week. If you want to see something scary, go onto whitefacemoutain.com/webcams. it left an impression on me. It looks like a dystopian future hanging on to shreds of a ski resort.

Sun angle…

I mean, looks bad to start January. We have 10 weeks from January 1 to have a winter. If what Im looking at today is correct (always a big if) we are down to 8.5 weeks to have a winter. Just a game of attrition. On a more global scale, NYC has a 15 week snowfall season. Last week of November thru second week of March. By Jan 7, we are 6 weeks in. It’s like a baseball game the Mets are playing, the Jets in December, or the Knicks with Dolan as owner. Could work, but if you have been around a while, you can start calling these things before half time or the 7th inning stretch I personally would feel better if December produced anything. Better historical data to cling to

Right. But then the question becomes how many, how much and for how long. Snowless Ninos dont usually become prolonged winters

The Winter is already a punt. Cruising towards AN temps and BN snow. Questions are: do we get a few snow events or one snow event? Are any of those a blockbuster like 2016? January opens at a solid +5 for those celebrating the pattern change

Forget snow. When is next day CPK goes below freezing?

OK, but you’re going for one offs then. Even Washington gets blizzards with two or 3 feet of snow every now and then. What are you seeing on This board is a majority of people that have not accepted the fact that winter is warm now. they’re getting angry because they expect three months of winter to act differently than the other nine months of the year. They are expecting frequent, frozen precipitation and below freezing weather, and they are expecting temperatures to run out or below normal for extended periods of time. That isn’t going to happen. There may be some great winter in the future that stands out from all of this… but what has become clear to anybody that wants to see it is that we are running 3 to 5° above normal. And when normal was mid 30s, that’s a really big fucking problem if you like winter weather. through January 10 I see slightly above normal temperatures. I’m sure we could pick something off. it’s possible. but if you’re looking for 1 to 3 inches here and another 1-3 inches there like its 1986 and looking out at 10 or 11 days of some snow cover on the ground in an urban environment, you are dreaming. Instead you will get a larger storm that manufactures it’s own cold air that falls and kind of disappears within a few days. And if you have a good season and the storm track sets up just right, you fall into an Atlantic City situation where you get a number of these type if storms.

True. But the next 93-94 will feature a VA type climate.

It was cold then and warm now. this is simply unprecedented in terms of extended warmth over multiple seasons. Nina, Nino, Neutral, MJO, doesnt really matter. Its warm. Even with this pattern change, I don’t see one below normal or even normal day over the next 15

Too warm now. 1-3 happens with 30s/20s split. Our climate is now 40s/30s split. you need a big storm that pulls in cold air for that so it becomes all or nothing thing. That has been on display for the last 20 years but it’s been masked by the amount of big storms we had as for the comparison between the 70s and 90s… stop doing it. It’s a much warmer climate, and while there may be similarities in terms of storm track and background state, the reality is we are so far removed from any winter weather at this point there’s nothing in that time That even comes comes close

the good thing about this weather is when you have a major party in December, you can keep every drink outside without worrying about it freezing and you don’t have to clean up the bar before bed. It’s just a great recipe for nice cold drinks that won’t freeze on you!

Merry Christmas everyone! 40F in Westchester!

Somebody posted a pic of a snowy train coming out of Grand Central in the early 90s. and a lot of the comments in the general public were oh that’s when it used to snow in New York. People are starting to notice now. It takes a while for the general public to notice, but people are really starting to. I’ll go with my old adage… December is snowless the winter ahead is gonna be shit. Better hope for a one hit wonder because that’s probably it if we haven’t had snow by December 31

List the ones that were bad. We did this already. You got your Nino reset. Lets hope it plays out like you want. Id like to see AN snow.