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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    Where is FV3 link?
  2. mikem81
    Where is the FV3? Its been offline since 06Z
  3. mikem81
    NAM at 84 (FWIW) has snow approaching Chicago
  4. mikem81
    Yes, better than Scott Norwood lean
  5. mikem81
    This is a good look 5 days out....
  6. mikem81
    NAO and PNA look to be slightly positive at this time period.
  7. mikem81
    This storm track will change 4 times a day for the next 3-4 days. Enjoy.
  8. mikem81
    Very quick runs through 8-1-2
  9. mikem81
    When does week 3 begin? Is that the 20th or 27th?
  10. mikem81
    Clearly those crazy high amplitude phase 5/6 didnt pan out in the end. Something is going on with the mJO's forecast. They all seem terrible.
  11. mikem81
    Could explain the MJO going nuts....:)
  12. mikem81
    2 things: 1. The EPS at 216 and 240 has a much better look than the OP Euro. After an average week and a one day warm storm, the pattern looks ripe for improvement as we head into January with the +PNA/-NAO and improving MJO. 2. Last winter we had to wait until March for a good pattern (excluding the first 2 weeks of January). I think everyone in hear living near NYC would take a crap pattern in December while the ocean is slowly cooling and a better Jan/Feb pattern where the ocean will screw you much less.
  13. mikem81
    Thats only modeling of the MJO. The Euro/UK/NCPE are all much slower in moving it out of phase 5
  14. mikem81
    Light snow in midtown
  15. mikem81
    Looks like a typical dry and cold and then wet and warm followed by dry and cold pattern...
  16. mikem81
    CMC very close for Monday storm
  17. mikem81
    Using the NAVGEM rule would yield a good result. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018120412&fh=144
  18. mikem81
    GFS para is a coastal scraper. Wonder if models are chasing convection and taking the SLP too far east. It has happened in the past with storms that surprised in the last few days and came well NW of initial modeling
  19. mikem81
    Light Snow is Western Nassau 33/23. Hoping the winds stay more NE than E..... Wish we could put a pool cover over the Atlantic this time of year
  20. mikem81
    Not sure how relevant at this point, but EURO ticked slightly colder than 0Z. Showing .4-.6 of QPF falling as snow for NYC and western LI with .6-.8 Just NW of 95
  21. mikem81
    The Cold Air flowing from the HP over the Boston area is more entrenched then event he Hrrr shows. Looking at current obs you can the that the cold air is hanging further SW at current (18Z) then even the current Hrrr has. For example the 1028 pressure line is around 30-40 miles SW of guidance https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
  22. mikem81
    Precip already in SNJ and Philly area
  23. mikem81
    33/17 here in western nassau. Lets hope the precip speeds up
  24. mikem81
    CUrrent obs in western Nassau County; 36/17. Nice cooling already. Down from 39 an hour ago
  25. mikem81
    The NAM verbatim is a degree or 2 warmer for the city and immediate burbs at the surface and precip shifted NW
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