TPAwx
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Everything posted by TPAwx
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Always wise to get a jump on prep. I’ve seen enough from the 12z GFS to book a hotel in GA for next week as a contingency. Will most likely not be needed.
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37 events over 175 years, 11 in the last 50 years. Reckon we all have subjective views on the meaning of frequency and rarity.
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Interesting for sure. We’ve beaten the Tampa thing to death, but it’s pretty rare for a major to landfall anywhere in Florida.
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It’s not the worst case scenario based on that track. Yes it would be a significant impact and highly disruptive. Trajectory needs to be mid to north Pinellas Country to maximize surge potential. And correct, Tampa will not be hit directly by a major hurricane next week.
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lol
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Yeah it’s not going to take 30 hours to cross the peninsula.
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Unfortunately for those that marinate in such scenarios, the odds are near zero that it happens, ever. Of course a Cat 1 on the Hurricane Phoenix trajectory would cause billions in damage here, so a big hit doesn’t need to be a high end storm.
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Wanting a TC or post tropical system with massive accumulated energy to visit YBY is a bit like the dog catching the car, FAFO, etc.
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More like 100 miles N around Cedar Key but it’s just one of many TBD op run track simulations
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Yeah nothing says Fall like a 101 heat index
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TC development patterns and steering currents are unfavorable for frequent local impacts, this goes back at least 175 years in available records. Eroding TS Eta caused more impact IMBY and for many here than Irma, which set off panic for a week out. We really don’t want anything of significance to landfall near or a bit N of TB.
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6z GFS says Farewell and Adieu to Tampa/St Pete area. Not far off from worst case track and surge scenario, albeit less intense. We’ll see lots of these super bad simulations jumping around the map over the coming days.
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Thoughts and prayers as you contend with ongoing moderate showers and breezy conditions. Stay vigilant.
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Horrific. Very detailed and engaging first person account of the Amazon warehouse on msnbc a few minutes ago. Should be on video later.
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There’s a level of enthusiasm for weather and meteorology, and hurricane tracking, that’s understandable and a lifelong passion for many. And then there’s sociopathy. Helpful to understand the difference, and not claim exemption due to “muh weather forum.”
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That’s fair, tho Memphis and Nashville have great food and music scenes.
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You really don’t want that HMON solution up yonder.
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it’s actually pretty funny that the admins allow a red tagger parody account.
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Yeah science and data based forecasting by top expert professionals is totally overrated.
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Thoughts and Prayers as you contend with all of this weather that is unusual in Florida except for many days during June, July and August of every year. Just a bit of rain here also.
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This weekend you’ll be posting about how you are getting ready for the wicked outer bands and then how disappointed you are with the weak outer bands as the system misses you by a large margin.
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The region and Tampa proper appear to have gotten through with less impact relative to potential outcomes. Onshore flow will continue thru 1230 high tide, but surge looks like 2-3ft near downtown. An early start to what could be a long and interesting tropical season.
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Radar has a juicy band setting up from Tampa metro to east of Sarasota, will be pivoting thru and dumping during the overnight. High tide at 320AM with the coc close to due west offshore. 3-5ft surge seems on target, could be a tad higher.
