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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Exactly. Yesterday one GFS run had it hitting FL while another had it going into the GOM. It's been consistently showing up, though and bears watching. But I wouldn't get too excited just yet 2 weeks out on the GFS.
  2. For those of you hugging the HWRF or thinking that this is a Rita analogue, here is an interesting post from the Mid-Atlantic forum:
  3. Let it develop first and then let's see what solutions the models come up with.
  4. Yes, end of first week/beginning of 2nd week in Sept. but it is the GFS 2 weeks out ... and if you look back, you'll see that it did the same thing with 99L. Obviously something to keep one's eye on.
  5. So was the ECMWF in the Atlantic. And the ECMWF yesterday was "moving towards" the GFS. Take a look at the consensus model intensity guidance chart at 12z - most don't have it getting past TS strength. The GFS is totally missing this at 4 days out? Look, not trying to be a party pooper here, and I'm not a Met ... but we've all been told that the models are not going to have a handle on this until it forms, if it does.