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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Well, if memory serves ... the 6z and 18z runs do not ingest the same amount of input data as the 0z and 12z ... so generally they are not considered to be as reliable. Someone can correct me if I am wrong.
  2. If I remember correctly, it was only the HWRF that was showing a strong hurricane at that point.
  3. The eastward component - from my recollection, it never really showed the same extent of retrograde as the GFS and the Canadian ... I believe even the NWS in their statements made note of this and made note that their track was east of the GFS and the Canadian. I could be wrong.
  4. Still, it got the "concept" right and was the closest to verifying for the track up until the retrograde, no? I'm not a met and I fully understand that it didn't get the complete solution and didn't get the solution mile-by-mile, but to say it was "terrible"? Isn't part of being a meteorologist using the various model solutions together with one's skill and knowledge and other tools such as water vapor imagery and radar to "complete" the forecast to the best of their ability? It seems to me that the Euro did the best with this storm for us in the NYC area thus far. The model hugging that goes on here to try to justify the worst case scenario boggles my mind. We had people at one point singling out the HWRF because it had Hermine at the lowest barometric pressures.
  5. Completely agree. Amazing the amount of wishcasting that goes on here under the guise of model hugging. Right now, the Euro is verifying. Could there be a loop/turn North/NWward? Sure, but it's going to have to happen pretty soon. As far as what the NWS puts out, if there is even a 10% chance that conditions will be bad, they HAVE to put out something that covers them and warns the public. On the last update, they also said that their current track is east of the GFS and Canadian solutions. I'd venture to say that no one expected the sun to be out late this afternoon/early this evening on Long Island. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
  6. Yes, but the effects in NYC and points north could be very different from what's being experienced in NJ. I don't know if the storm is strengthening at this point or not ... perhaps that is responsible for the dropping pressures while the storm is moving E or ENE. The 5PM update mentioned that there is still significant model divergence: The spread in the track model guidance has increased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a westward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine northeastward. The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster, taking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and UKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given the spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the interaction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the track forecast remains quite low. The 18z GFS seems to move it NE until tomorrow morning, at which point it starts to retrograde back. Northwestern fringes get into NYC.
  7. Does anybody have a good understanding of what synoptically is making the ECMWF take this more eastward while so many of the other models are not ... and how realistic the ECMWF's synoptic assessment is? I mean, I understand that at least for now in the near-term, it appears to be verifying. But is it possible that the other models will verify as far as "loop back" is concerned? It appears to truly be clearing both up here in Westchester and out on LI at Long Beach.
  8. So you're thinking is that the blocking high is throwing many of the models. OK.
  9. Never said it was a garbage model. Used the word "reliable". You took my words out of context. I stated that it was a model that is normally used together with other models to come up with a solution and that I can't recall the last time it alone had a solution that verified while other models differed with it to any degree of significance.
  10. Well, I'm not a met, but I can't remember the last time the Canadian was used as a reliable model. Wouldn't you normally factor it in together with other models like the NAM, GFS, and ECMWF (and in the short range, models like the HRRR) to come up with an extrapolated forecast. You normally don't just take an outlier verbatim, right (unless there is a very good meteorological reason for it)?
  11. I was just going to say the same kinda thing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the models seem to keep the moderate/heavy precip south of NYC but the wind field is a different story.
  12. 6z GFS looked like it shifted a bit east to me. Anyone?
  13. Well, I think it's too early to tell for sure. At the very least, the waves could be a sight to see. I think if it does intensify, the current forecast calls for 65kt if I remember correctly and it will all depend upon how close it comes. Like the NHC said, the UKMET and Canadian models have it further out to sea. I think the NAM did also (yes I'm using the NAM here because Hermine does become extratropical and move over land during part of it's life). Let's see what the models look like tomorrow. Even for the coast, I don't think the govt officials want to jump the gun too soon and encourage people to leave over a holiday weekend unless it's absolutely necessary.
  14. From the 11PM NHC Update. If this verifies, things could get interesting around here at the beaches even if it remains offshore: The initial motion remains 030/12. The flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward to northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next 36 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this period, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. At 48 hours and beyond, Hermine is expected to interact with a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United States. The track guidance become rather divergent during this period, with the GFS and ECMWF models showing a looping track close to the coast, while the UKMET and Canadian models show a slow motion somewhat farther offshore. The new forecast track compromises between these solutions and shows a slow northeastward motion during this time. Regardless of the exact track, Hermine should linger for several days near the northeastern U. S. coast as a vigorous low pressure system. A little more strengthening is possible during the last few hours before landfall. After landfall, Hermine is expected to weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, eventually emerging from the North Carolina coast as a tropical storm. The cyclone is expected to re-intensify as an extratropical low during its interaction with the baroclinic trough. The forecast intensities have been raised for this part of the forecast based on global model forecasts, and it is possible that they are a little conservative. Later in the forecast period, vertical shear decreases, and the cyclone could be situated over marginally warm waters. Therefore there is the possibility of the system regaining some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, although this remains speculative.
  15. On this 0Z GFS run, it seems to retrograde and looks to me like the heavier precip actually gets up north of NYC on Sunday afternoon/evening. Then doesn't head E/NE until Monday morning/afternoon and still affects LI until late Monday.
  16. Look, the mods don't want the N_M discussed here, LOL. Yes it overdoes intensity and precip ... almost always. But so does the HWRF. I think it's kind of hypocritical to wishcast using the HWRF and then be critical of someone who does it using the N_M.
  17. Agree that the NAM is a short-term model, but it's certainly not limited to Thunderstorms. It actually was the only model to accurately predict our last major snowstorm if I remember correctly. My point is ... it looks to me like the NAM has a reasonable handle on the track (not sure about the intensity) now and the HWRF can certainly overdo the intensity just like the NAM. So while the NAM might not be a hurricane model, neither are the GFS or the ECMWF. If someone wants to talk about the NAM here now that we're in the short-term of landfall ... what's the big deal? People were citing the HWRF for the past week even though the intensity was overdone.
  18. Well, maybe not. But I think in order for this to be reality, we'd want to see at least a little bit of consistency. The GFS had a major cane coming up the east coast around 9/11 for several runs (although it kept changing the track from east coast to GOM and back) and now it's gone over the last couple of days. The difference now is we're within a much shorter range and the circulation has become a little more defined and we have a TS ... so the models should in theory have a better handle on it. But things change.
  19. Let's see both the GFS and the Euro hold this through 0z. I can't get too excited about one run.
  20. Yes, he is amazing. Smart, articulate, and balanced/impartial. I'm not a Met, and I totally agree with you. From what I can tell, I wouldn't be surprised if TD9/99L doesn't strengthen much more before making landfall and if it does, perhaps becomes a minimal TS. Just isn't enough time with enough positive factors that would contribute to development. Over the Atlantic/Gulf Stream, perhaps a different story. Still, as Levi points out, lots of precip east of the center for Florida.
  21. Have any of you watched Levi's update from yesterday on Tropical Tidbits? He suggests a number of factors ... both positive and negative (but mostly negative) that will either encourage or discourage further development including the shear, broad circulation, lows not vertically stacked (yet), dry air, elongated trough extending out to the NE, other upper level dynamics, jet streak presence, etc. You can't just "wish" these things away.
  22. Why wouldn't the HWRF be too strong and the others (including the GFS) be the consensus?
  23. Exactly. Yesterday one GFS run had it hitting FL while another had it going into the GOM. It's been consistently showing up, though and bears watching. But I wouldn't get too excited just yet 2 weeks out on the GFS.