larrye

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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Yeah I'm right across the river from you and we JUST switched from light snow to heavy snow.
  2. All snow, but light in intensity in Tarrytown NY. Visually, it looks like about 5" so far. There was sleet mixing in for a period of time, but looks like it's all snow right now.
  3. Exactly. The past accums that are being referenced are in Orange County and upstate NY ... not the greater NYC area. The question was asked whether accums like this are even possible. Anything's possible, but we are talking about a March storm ... consider climatology ... and there have been numerous times when models like the NAM and the Euro have spat out very high totals even in the dead of winter when we ultimately discovered them to be unrealistic. I'm not saying that it can't happen. Just saying to temper your expectations. These are just models ... computer programs ... and yes there is also a dependency on where the CCBs set up. We've certainly seen 18" - 30" of snow in recent years in or near NYC. Whether it will get close to or exceed 30" is something that regardless of model output, you shouldn't hang your hat on.
  4. All the models have their biases. That is why a met factors each in to a forecast but doesn't ride on any particular one. While the Euro/UKMet/Cmc may show more, they could be showing more because they don't quite have the right track or because their assessment of the storm's velocity is off ... as opposed to a bias. It's one good reason to consider the ensembles where possible. We've all seen examples of where such large amounts were spit out by the models and they busted. Point is ... let's weight the models properly in the forecast (and in reality) and not take any one model verbatim. If they were all in solid agreement with QPF and track location (which will never happen), that would be one thing. But ...
  5. It's the NAM. Chances are very high that the QPF is overdone.
  6. Which of these would you consider a reliable model that forecasters use to base a forecast on ... if you're going to putthe Euro, GFS, and NAM aside?
  7. Yes, and that's what I've been trying to point out ... but Ulster tells us that it's amongst the best models this winter.
  8. Thanks for that explanation!
  9. I understand the concept of eyewall replacement. But is it typical for a hurricane to have two eyewalls for this long a period of time ... and isn't the outer eyewall kind of large for an eyewall?
  10. Last time I looked at the NAVGEM, it was an outlier and was way west. Now it may in fact shift or wobble west, but at this point that doesn't seem to be what the NHC is forecasting.
  11. Holy crap! And it can't be that out of the realm of possibility because the Euro showed something similar earlier.
  12. I have a friend who is a met who says that they are not as reliable and have seen it posted many times here. But maybe that has changed.
  13. NAM is a short-range model. ECMWF is the European. ECMWF updates at 0z and 12z, but ends up coming in around 1-3am and 1-3pm Eastern Time.
  14. I'm in Delray but about 6 miles inland. I think we should be ok in terms of surge.
  15. I live in NY but I'm actually in Delray in Palm Beach County. Too close for comfort.
  16. Depends upon the model. The GFS and NAM update around 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z. The 00z and 12z are generally considered to be more reliable because (as I understand it) they consume more input data.
  17. I was just going to ask if it was my imagination ... looks a bit west at 48 hours.
  18. It doesn't surprise me that medium/long range models turn out to be wrong 4-5 days in advance with a Hurricane.
  19. Are models ever REALLY consistent? I mean, yes ... sometimes there are trends and a convergence. But often, their solutions change back and forth and there isn't necessarily consistency between them. Also, Hurricanes are a different beast.
  20. OK. Sure "anything's possible". But again ... given climatology ... which basically says an extremely high percentage of hurricanes/tropical systems recurve and don't make it up to the NYC area (especially while still tropical) ... and given the current plots (as west as everything has shifted up to this point) ... is it THAT difficult to understand someone who states that the likelihood is that it's OTS? I get that it's still 4-5 days out, but ...
  21. I don't think so. The local mets/media will take any opportunity to sensationalize so I'm sure they will make people aware of the likely effects from the trough pulling in the precip or from being on the left side of the storm.
  22. The Ukie has been west for days now. I would think at this point it would be considered an outlier ... although in this situation you never know.