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Everything posted by larrye

  1. Because models can be unreliable at this range? Because their representation of the upper air features have been changing over the past bunch of runs and could change again? Yes, it looks (to me, a novice) like there is more run to run consistency and some degree of convergence between different models. But I don't know if there are many people who would say that "all things pointing towards a US landfall" right now.
  2. And how does the Euro model the trough? Does it also lift it out ... and at the same point?
  3. He's technically right. It's an entirely different story to say that a storm wouldn't behave the way it did vs. a cat 5 making landfall at a high lattitude. Yes, one should never talk in absolutes. Perhaps "almost impossible" or "highly unlikely" would have been better words. But I think we all know what he was trying to say. It is likely that the pressures on the models are way overdone that far north.
  4. Perhaps with the overall picture. But to me, it's been remarkably consistent with the track ... within a few hundred miles. Am I missing something?
  5. I dunno. The media's already been hyping it. Just this morning, CNN asked a rescue official in TX if he's ready for Irma. The media in this country is out for one thing - ratings.
  6. And there are some that are convinced that we see a US landfall also. We're 7-10 days out.
  7. Meanwhile, ABC Network news and CNN are already both starting to hype it - and the fact that it's a cat 3 way before a hurricane normally becomes that strong.
  8. You're right. But somehow, whether in it's good range or not ... when there is some degree of model consistency, the media usually sinks its teeth in like a ravenous dog. I think the Houston mets are just too weary at this point to focus on anything else. But they may have to soon enough.
  9. Disagree. There is already some degree of run-to-run consistency on the GFS. I think if this continues to the 00z ... even if within 200 miles ... you're gonna start seeing/hearing this hyped all over the media tomorrow.
  10. What lesson? This is still 10 days out? It will change again.
  11. I was under the impression that a prior storm moving along the same or similar path actually makes it less conducive for another to strengthen due to the upwelling of the ocean.
  12. Forgive me ... but you're going to take a single 18Z run of the GFS for a storm that is easily a week+ out and say that it brings "fear into the eyes of the beholder"? If you look back far enough, you can find one model run where Gert was originally progged to ride up the east coast. Anything's possible, but I think you may be jumping the gun a bit.
  13. Anyone care to venture a forecast for tomorrow, Friday, at Montauk? I'm seeing Party Sunny with no chance of precip during the day. But with SE onshore flow, would you expect it to be Cloudy?
  14. Dry and hot? No. A frontal passage with 2-3 days of nice weather with lower humidity followed by another 2-3 days of nice weather (Partly Cloudy/Party Sunny) with increasing humidity and afternoon/evening T-Storms ... that would be a "normal" summer pattern. As opposed to a continued barrage of these major systems where we lost 2-3 days in a row to clouds and steadier rain.
  15. Anyone see any weeks before Labor Day when at least MOST of the week will be nice ... even if the temps aren't in the 90s? Seems to me that we haven't had more than 2 or 3 beach days in a row or during a given week without a shortwave, storm or front rolling through. Sunday was supposed to be an amazing day - best day of the week. I went out to Long Beach around noon and all of a sudden, it clouded up from the Bronx through Queens all the way out to Long Beach and it was downright chilly at the beach.
  16. What do you guys think about the general pattern over the next week or two? A few days back, this was forecast to be a pretty decent week. Am now reading on Upton's AFD that it's not looking so good and they are talking about a ULL closing off later in the week.
  17. Much further north? That's like maybe a mile or two LOL.
  18. Pouring 100% sleet in Tarrytown continues. Initial measurement 11.5" as of 10:45AM.
  19. Pouring sleet in Tarrytown continues. Initial measurement 11.5" as of 10:45AM.
  20. Either the wind is blowing the snow so hard at my windows that it's pinging ... or it's sleet mixing in again in Tarrytown. Likely the latter.
  21. It wasn't supposed to sleet anywhere, LOL!
  22. I dunno. We had sleet here for an hour or two in Tarrytown ... nw of NYC in Westchester. That could cut our totals down. Will have to wait and see.