Chicago Storm

It's a tough call for Northern Illinois, and the the LOT/DVN CWA's right now. Typically in these situations with dry air intrusion from the NE, a sharp gradient is the way to go...and happens 9/10 times. However, it's hard to overlook most guidance, which has a couple inches further north and a loose gradient...compared to say the NAM that is drier further north and has a sharp gradient.

The one thing holding you guys back is the lack of a slider bar to scroll through model runs, as COD has.

18z NAM? It was definitely further south at the surface and 500mb.

This place is well past it’s prime. A lot of the heavy hitters have left, outside of a rare drop in.

zzzzz .

Peak wind gust of 49MPH at ORD on Tuesday. .

0.2” here and at ORD on the backside of this system. .

Gonna go with 1.1” for ORD. .

Zzzzz .

Had a nice period of freezing fog here Sunday evening/night. There was widespread heavy frost on everything, making it look post snow/ice storm-like. .

Ended up with 0.5" of snow here Sunday night/Monday morning, on the backside of the last system.

Fall 2018 was the 4th snowiest Fall on record for Chicago. Top 10 Snowiest Falls: 1. 14.8" - 1940 2. 14.5" - 1895 3. 14.3" - 1951 4. 12.7" - 2018 5. 11.2" - 2015 6. 10.8" - 1975 7. 10.2" - 1989 8. 7.6" - 1953 9. 7.5" - 1893 10. 7.1" - 1978

13th coldest November on record for Chicago. It was also the 4th snowiest November on record... Top 10 Snowiest Novembers: 1. 14.8" - 1940 2. 14.5" - 1895 3. 14.3" - 1951 4. 12.7" - 2018 5. 11.2" - 2015 6. 10.8" - 1975 7. 7.6" - 1953 8. 7.5" - 1893 9. 7.1" - 1978 10. 7.0" - 1950

Had a light glaze of ice on many surfaces last night here, with a period of -FZRA.

Looks like some flood potential Fri/Sat, given the rain potential/frozen ground/snow melt/snow covered sewers combo.

0.7" at ORD and here last night, with the wave/WAA.

ORD had 1.20" of precip on the 25th, which broke the record precip amount for the date of 1.06", set in 1908.

Finished with 9.0" here, and peak winds gusts of 45-50mph. Ended up with about a day and a half power outage. Lost power at ~2AM Sunday night, and didn't have it restored until around noon today. Tree damage is the worst I can remember from a snow or ice event here, with widespread branches/limbs/trees down across much of the area. Reminds of damage in the wake of a summer bow/MCS wind event. While not having an insanely high snow total IMBY, the snow/wind/damage combo makes this a top 5 winter storm in my books. If we could have topped 12", it probably would have ranked #1.

A run into the 6-9” range still looks possible. Especially with colder air filtering in and better snows moving in again. .

LOT lost power and is on generator backup. .

Lost power for a very short time during the midnight hour, and have lost it a second time running on 30min now. Was up to 5.1” as of midnight, but have added a decent amount since with heavier snows returning. Still looks like a run on 12” is in the cards. After decent winds during the evening and then a lull, winds have increased again since midnight. Numerous tree branches/limbs are down across the area, ranging in size. Came across one on a car earlier, and a neighbor has a large one down on their house and patio. ORD gusted to 51MPH about 30min ago and had 3.3” of snow as of midnight. .

4.1" here as of 9:15. It has been rip city since this area of precip moved in around 6PM. There is widespread tree damage and power outages in the area, due to the wet snow/high wind combo. Confident I end up around 12" when it ends in the morning.

Numerous reports of 5-7” across the northern tier or so in the LOT CWA from that earlier initial FGEN band. That area will likely be the winner for the area in the end with the head start. .

This is definitely a big dog. All of that convection over IL is wrapping up into the cold sector. Tons of TSSN from E. IA into IL now, with 3”/hr rates reported. .

Not surprising to see things shift back south once again, after many of the 0z runs jumped north. It seems that almost every time before a sig system there is a model cycle right before that drastically changes, only to revert back. .