Chicago Storm
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Up to 5.3” here now. .
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Pretty close to +SN here right now...just pouring snow. +SN DPA.
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Up to 4.0" here. A E-W band of moderate to heavy snow has now given way to a NE-SW oriented moderate to heavy band of snow. 6"+ here is a lock now for sure, with amounts in the RAP/HRRR range of 6-10" likely.
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Nice moderate to heavy band of snow setting up from around GBG up to ORD. This should slide northeast the next several hours.
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Up to 2.6" here. Close to 1"/hr rates now.
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Nice lake enhancement continues from north of MKE down into far NE. Illinois.
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1.7" here thus far.
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It's working in our favor in the end, as totals will likely be higher in the current scenario.
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Probably an outside chance of TSSN across Northern Illinois tonight. Convective looking precip moving northeast out of the W. Illinois and STL area, where lightning has already occurred. NAM soundings also show a bit of CAPE in the DGZ around 9z at ORD.
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3-4" range based on LSR's.
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Highest totals will definitely be south of there.
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Correct. However, if the RAP/HRRR are correct and the synoptic drops 8-12"...then LES may push that way over.
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A late first call of 12" at ORD...but think I might bust low.
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Lake enhancement already coming onshore in SE. Wisconsin and NE. Illinois.
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RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD.
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RAP has been coming in wetter for some areas, with nice snows likely across a good portion of MDX-DVN-LOT CWA...
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You'll be surprised then at least.
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You're golden for another 6"+ event.
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I would be a bit weary of it, given it differs and is more significant than any other guidance.
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70/30 shot it under-performs.
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Agree. However, with that FGEN band looking fairly transient and under-performing so far, it might not be as big of a deal in the end. We shall see I guess.
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Lake effect headlines were discontinued, so it would be WWA or WSW.
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It's a nice/strong FGEN band. However, it has under-performed further west...Most guidance has a large axis of 7-11" across South Dakota, where only 2-5" actually occurred.
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I haven't looked at soundings since yesterday, but at that time 13-15:1 was a good range.
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It looks like the only areas that both FGEN and synoptic snow will overlap is S. Wisconsin into S. Michigan.
