Chicago Storm

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). zzz for the foreseeable future.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

7th snowiest and 4th wettest fall on record for Chicago... Snowiest falls on record (Sept-Nov) 1. 14.8" - 1940 2. 14.5" - 1895 3. 14.3" - 1951 4. 11.1" - 2015 5. 10.8" - 1975 6. 10.2" - 1989 7. 8.3" - 2019 8. 7.6" - 1953 9. 7.5" - 1893 10. 7.1" - 1978 Wettest falls on record (Sept-Nov) 1. 19.32" - 1961 2. 17.51" - 2008 3. 17.20" - 1881 4. 16.24" - 2019 5. 15.81" - 2001 6. 15.71" - 1941 7. 15.69" - 1983 8. 15.29" - 1988 9. 15.22" - 1970 10. 15.02" - 1985

0.1" of snow at ORD and 0.4" here last night.

0z HRRR peak wind gusts...

ENS would suggest that at least the first week of December will likely be a lost cause for the most part, if trends are correct. They do show some of the same heading into week 2...However, I wouldn't put too much stock into anything that far out. The MJO entering the COD in a cold phase recently will likely help keep us from all out torching for now. It should be noted though that guidance wants to push the MJO out of the COD, and into "warmer" phases 2 and 3 during the first week of December. If that happens and teleconnections are in the vicinity of whats currently shown, then maybe a torch-y period could be a real possibility. Also...Some bad news...The ECMWF weeklies are a torch from ~Dec. 20-Jan. 10th (end of run).

Highest report I've seen...Out of SE. Kansas recently. 0652 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT 37.08N 95.57W 11/26/2019 M75 MPH MONTGOMERY KS ASOS ASOS STATION KCFV COFFEYVILLE.

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +. Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

I can match that...

50-65mph wind gusts look likely across the area both with the line of showers/'t'storms along the front tomorrow night, then again on the backside on Wednesday.

Back to back crushers leads to this... .

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Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December. Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO. Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer.

0.2" at ORD and here last night.

18z Euro with another step back.

0.1" at ORD and here last night.

GGEM and Euro took a step back. It's gonna be hard to get anything really good out of the setup, given where the main PV lobe is located up over the Hudson, combined with +PNA in place. The new 12z ECMWF/GGEM runs are probably the best case scenario. I'd hedge somewhere between them and what the GFS has for now.

Trees are pouring down leaves today, following the cold night last night. .

Hittin' it on a Tuesday morning, huh?

Yes. .

Still waiting for TH to make a valid point.

This RI we’re seeing now that the storm is moving over the Gulf Stream is unfathomable.

Questionable at best. .

turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI. .