Chicago Storm

Huge changes again aloft. Now it’s trying to close off the main wave as it ejects out. That’s a new one...don’t think we’ve seen a model/run trying to do that, until now. .

NAM .

Very little by Saturday evening 0z's...Full by 12z Sunday.

Agree with this.

It's ova, outside of a DAB.

Other guidance is fairly similar. Without a more amped wave, or one that tries to close off, this is what we're going to have.

6z Euro is back south and weaker. .

DAB is actually my thought right now. .

If this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. .

GFS caving, at least for now... Well south and weaker. .

Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr.

I wouldn't go that route and discount it yet. The storm system that has been moving across the country early/mid this week featured the same issue... The GFS was more amped, and was not leaving behind any part of the wave...Which lead to it showing a decent snowstorm across MO/IA/WI/IL/IN/MI on several runs. On the other hand, the Euro latched on to the idea of leaving energy behind, and it took the GFS quite a while to catch up to that idea. In the end, the Euro was right. One cherry picked example, but a recent one.

You ask, you shall receive...

What happens with the EPO is really going to shape the upcoming pattern. Euro ENS still want to bring the EPO + for a while, flooding much for the country with mild air for the most part. GFS ENS keep the EPO -, with a more up/down pattern...with cold shots and snow potential.

South and weaker.

0.1" ORD and 0.2" here, from the period of snow this morning.

On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.

Did it trigger wx radio?

ENS finally showing changes... Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region. Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas. .

Hopefully we'll be in a better place by then. Would be nice to have a solid white Christmas. '17, '16 and '13 were, but only featured 1-2"...the last solid one was '10 later.

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself. Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless. Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

thanks for playing.

It has been mild, and will continue to be (minus the possible quick cold shot next week). zzz for the foreseeable future.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.