Chicago Storm

That becomes their problem then, not ours. .

I like this approach. .

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All of the so called “guru’s” have failed this far. Not saying he’s one per say, but will lump him in given he’s almost always talking cold for somewhere. .

zzzzz... Edit: Should mention that since my last post last week, the GEFS caved to the EPS in showing fairly close to the same as below.

After that 1-2 run change, they reverted back. .

As you could probably figure out by the current/upcoming pattern, the Euro ENS were correct in handling/depicting a +EPO...while the GFS ENS failed horribly. The bad news...If ENS have a good handle on things, that upcoming potential pattern change guidance was hinting at to end December and begin January might be in jeopardy. The Euro and GFS ENS are showing a continued +EPO continue right on into early January. On top of that, the Euro ENS also have a +AO/+NAO/neutral PNA set in as well. The GFS ENS are a bit more subdue overall, more similar to what we are seeing now. Also of note, is that some of the GFS and Euro ENS have the MJO moving from the COD on into phase 6 for the late Dec/early Jan time-frame. If that were to happen, combined with the potential teleconnections in projected, and the fact the main PV will be up over the North Pole/Siberia...things *could* get even more torchy/snow-less...and that's saying something given how the past 5 weeks have been. Not saying that will happen... But the projected teleconnections alone should be a concern that an overall mild/snow-less pattern continues into at least early January.

The "people" have been wrong so far. So I wouldn't put too much stock into what they say. However on the flip side, it does appear there is support for the potential of a more favorable pattern for cold/snow around or after the New Year. The GFS ENS are more gung-ho on this than the Euro ENS though.

Equal chances either way that far out. However, it is sort of interesting at the same time that there is not even a long range fantasy storm heading into January.

A lot of valid questions/possibilities.

You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. .

12z GFS was a nice torch for Christmas, and the days prior.

What happens with the EPO is really going to shape the upcoming pattern. Euro ENS still want to bring the EPO + for a while, flooding much for the country with mild air for the most part. GFS ENS keep the EPO -, with a more up/down pattern...with cold shots and snow potential.

On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.

ENS finally showing changes... Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region. Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas. .

Hopefully we'll be in a better place by then. Would be nice to have a solid white Christmas. '17, '16 and '13 were, but only featured 1-2"...the last solid one was '10 later.

tth, as alek would say. what has occurred speaks for itself. Fairly large area of 2-6 above normal. Fairly snow-less as well...ORD with only 0.1" and DTW with 0.2" since that time.

i didn't start discussing this pattern until 11/18, as shown below. so that would be pointless. Indian summer part was a bit overblown, but otherwise mild/wet/lacking snow has been spot on.

thanks for playing.

Phases 2 and 3 are warmer phases in December. Phase 3 has the highest significant for a larger portion of the region. ENS teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO, would suggest a fairly unfavorable pattern through the 20th. That's not to say it won't snow at all, but things will be unfavorable for anything decent unless we thread the needle. Average/mild conditions will likely persist as well during that time.

ENS would suggest that at least the first week of December will likely be a lost cause for the most part, if trends are correct. They do show some of the same heading into week 2...However, I wouldn't put too much stock into anything that far out. The MJO entering the COD in a cold phase recently will likely help keep us from all out torching for now. It should be noted though that guidance wants to push the MJO out of the COD, and into "warmer" phases 2 and 3 during the first week of December. If that happens and teleconnections are in the vicinity of whats currently shown, then maybe a torch-y period could be a real possibility. Also...Some bad news...The ECMWF weeklies are a torch from ~Dec. 20-Jan. 10th (end of run).

ENS take the EPO/AO/NAO/PNA all neutral to +, some very +. Could have a decent stretch of mild and winter-less upcoming.

Back to back crushers leads to this... .

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