Chicago Storm

The north guidance is not surprising, with a lack of blocking and continued +AO/NAO. .

The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out/not-phased. Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back. .

It hasn’t been shown consistently, and given the pattern we’re still in...it’s probably not even worth much discussion this far out. .

0.5” at ORD and 0.6” here last night. .

Looks like there was a long corridor of totals of 3-6”, from SE. South Dakota on down into N-C. Illinois. That N. Iowa bullseye won though within that main corridor, with 6-9”. Nice over-performer compared to most guidance. .

Looks like the pivot will be between you and Hawkeye. That area from DVN up to E of CID has been getting the goods for a bit now. .

It’s going to weaken as it pushes ESE. .

There was actually a corridor of 4-5” that extended up NW into SW. Minnesota/SE. South Dakota as well. But yea, that N-C. Iowa area is jackpot with 6-10”. RGEM seems to have handled this event the best, as it was favoring a narrow corridor of higher totals, with even a few runs having 6-7” lolli’s. .

Yea, pivot point is currently transitioning from that N-C. Iowa area (near Clarion), to NE. Iowa now. Current trajectory would then bring it over towards DBQ-or nearby.

I'm tempted to say over. Either for you or just north.

3.8" Clarion, IA as of an hour ago. Probably going to make a run at 6" there, being in the pivot point. Edit: New report of 5.5" a bit north of Clarion now. Someone is going to make a run at 6-8" around that area.

RGEM likely has the best handle on that strong disturbance moving through the region. North/wet is the way to go.

Indeed. And it's not gonna happen in this pattern either.

Up until the rain and snow with the system to close out the month, ORD was on pace for the 2nd driest (0.17") and tied for 8th snow-less (0.5") December on record.

If that happens in this unfavorable pattern...take it and run, and don't stop running.

ORD finished with 1.5” of snow, yesterday/last night. .

Well...I was previously going to mentioned how the Euro and GFS ENS had trended towards showing the potential for a much more favorable pattern coming up after the first week of January (7th)...A continued +AO, though with an NAO trending more neutral to -, along with a deepening -PNA and finally a legit -EPO. However, the Euro ENS have quickly trended back in the opposite direction, and are now back to what they were previously showing...with the same pattern that has been in place continuing... +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA...with a deepening -PNA. The GFS is kind of in the middle regarding things overall. There is also agreement between both the Euro and GFS ENS's on the MJO continuing to chug along, right on through the COD and into phases 4 and 5, which happen to be warmer phases of higher correlation at this time of year. I'd probably put more stock into what the Euro ENS are projecting, given their near stellar performance for a while now. If the Euro ENS are correct with teleconnections, combined with the projected MJO and upcoming movement of the main PV to settle in around Greenland in the future...more of the same pattern we've been in will continue (mild and snow-less overall), though more active overall. If the GFS ENS are correct, it will probably be a somewhat better pattern than we've been in, but still nothing to get too excited about. Probably a bit better cold/snow chances, however. tl;dr... zzzzz for now.

The low of 47 at ORD yesterday broke the record high min temp for the date of 42 (1884).

Already had 0.1" here from the morning activity. But yea...A DAB will likely be it for tonight for most areas. Most recent guidance has been backing off from the earlier overdone 2-4" projections. DAB-1.5" looks good, with highest obviously near the IL/WI border. Should point out that the GFS is going to end up handling this better than any other guidance. All but two runs had a DAB to ~1.5" across N. Illinois.

+SN in some of this activity currently moving across NE. IL. .

0.94” was the total at ORD with the first round. 1. 2008 - 50.86" 2. 2011 - 49.83" 3. 1983 - 49.35" 4. 2018 - 49.23" 5. 2019 - 49.10” 2nd place will easily be attained with round 2, as only 0.74” is needed. Still an outside chance at 1st, with 1.77” needed. .

That becomes their problem then, not ours. .

I like this approach. .

I wouldn’t go there yet. .

Given how guidance has been trending, jumping from 5th to 2nd is a lock. Maybe a very outside chance of 1st still. .