Chicago Storm

TSSN in C IL within the past hour. .

Based on soundings, TSSN is a real possibility with this event as well.

HRRR with the snowiest run yet. Obviously going to be a bit overdone, but still... .

Nice strong banding signal showing up on a lot of guidance... .

Gonna go 3.5” ORD. But feeling like that could be low. .

Can pretty much toss all of what he had to say. .

Looking likely that there will be an axis of 3-6” across the area, with the main question being where that sets up. Biggest April snow this late into the month definitely in play for ORD. .

DOA threat is DOA. Best chance for any severe was near the warm front and triple point in E. IA and N/C. IL...which didn't pan out.

Had a period of flurries to sleet to ice pellets late this morning/early this afternoon here.

I was a few days ago, since it usually gets held up around I-80 in most cases. However, it looks like there is significant support for it to make it to at least the IL/WI border during the afternoon.

Thursday looks like a marginal day around here. As mentioned by many, quality moisture is lacking, among other things.

All guidance has shifted well north and with a stronger system. The big difference is how guidance is handling blocking with the NAO. New guidance with the further north solution now has much less strong blocking further west, which allows much more ridging ahead of this system...allowing a much more amped and further north system. .

You must live in Canada.

Track on this one is going to depend on the strength of the -NAO.

Just some observations for those looking for solid severe/chasing prospects or sustained warmth... We are currently transitioning from one bad pattern to another. The pattern we are leaving has been dominated by a +PNA/-EPO/stagnant COD MJO. The pattern we are now entering will be dominated by a -NAO/+PNA/stagnant COD MJO, which will likely last through mid-month, and potentially beyond in a varying degree. Essentially that means any sig severe/chasing prospects are slim to none for all but maybe the Dixie Ally or nearby. Additionally, we'll likely continue to see the roller-coaster temps wise continue as well. This -NAO/-PNA/-AO pattern might also help push out some April snow for some. Beyond mid-month things get a bit iffy obviously, but there looks to be more support for a continued not so great teleconnection pattern. The big thing that needs to change is getting the MJO moving and out of the COD, which is where it has been since March 13th.

See ya in May.

March ended up top 10 least snowy on record for Chicago... Top 10 Least Snowy Marchs: T - 2000 T - 1997 T - 1994 T - 1921 T - 1910 0.1" - 1908 0.3" - 2019 0.3" - 2012 0.3" 1985 0.3" - 1939

You should go post there...Would be a solid addition.

I wouldn't say that until after this weekend.

Things are likely DOA for the most part until at least mid-April. The stagnant MJO and sig -EPO are not helping at all.

60mph max wind gust at ORD thus far. .

Any risk across NE. Illinois will definitely remain isolated. The tor watch was probably for a precaution, but the 10% hatched tor risk is laughable and beyond bad. The environment right now is actually decent, but there is way too much activity ongoing to take advantage of it.

Looks like max wind gust at ORD overnight and this morning was 48mph. .

This tells us everything we need to know...you're out of your mind. Winter 2013/14 was top 5 coldest and snowiest on record overall, and in other terms as well. Also 2013/24 being a -B and 1978/79 "only" being an -A is pure lol. What you're looking for might not even exist on this planet, outside of mountainous terrain.