Chicago Storm

A lot of valid questions/possibilities.

You know it’s bad when the GFS doesn’t even have a fantasy snowstorm the entire run...which extends into the first days of January. Not just for our region, but the whole country pretty much. .

0.3" at ORD and 0.2" here last night.

12z GFS was a nice torch for Christmas, and the days prior.

So.....post more then? .

You mean the pre-Christmas warm up. .

It came north, with more of a slight SW-NE swath/track. It can only go so far north though, with the PV lobe swinging into the northern lakes from Canada. .

Huge changes again aloft. Now it’s trying to close off the main wave as it ejects out. That’s a new one...don’t think we’ve seen a model/run trying to do that, until now. .

NAM .

Very little by Saturday evening 0z's...Full by 12z Sunday.

Agree with this.

It's ova, outside of a DAB.

Other guidance is fairly similar. Without a more amped wave, or one that tries to close off, this is what we're going to have.

6z Euro is back south and weaker. .

DAB is actually my thought right now. .

If this one doesn’t work out, under 1” will be close to a lock. .

GFS caving, at least for now... Well south and weaker. .

Would be a siggy run, if extrapolated beyond 84hr.

I wouldn't go that route and discount it yet. The storm system that has been moving across the country early/mid this week featured the same issue... The GFS was more amped, and was not leaving behind any part of the wave...Which lead to it showing a decent snowstorm across MO/IA/WI/IL/IN/MI on several runs. On the other hand, the Euro latched on to the idea of leaving energy behind, and it took the GFS quite a while to catch up to that idea. In the end, the Euro was right. One cherry picked example, but a recent one.

You ask, you shall receive...

What happens with the EPO is really going to shape the upcoming pattern. Euro ENS still want to bring the EPO + for a while, flooding much for the country with mild air for the most part. GFS ENS keep the EPO -, with a more up/down pattern...with cold shots and snow potential.

South and weaker.

0.1" ORD and 0.2" here, from the period of snow this morning.

On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.