Chicago Storm

Widespread 2-6".

It's not doing so hot so far... The R/S line is steadily working east...located just east of an RFD to RPJ to GBG line. Already into the 12-6AM area.

FYI, none of the GEFS hold on to the lake shadow like the OP does.

Need a wager here.

They don't have a flow off the lake, they're just slower with CAA. HRRR has NNW winds by 6z.

Seems like widespread agreement on 2-6" tonight/tomorrow across the area. Several models are higher than that, but given their performance last night have to shave some off...though it was a different setup. In this case we'll have the storm deepening, wrapping up and CAA setting in.

Both the GFS and HRRR seem to be on an island regarding this. Everything else has CAA kick in, with a flip to snow this evening or tonight across the area.

1.2" ORD and 1.4" MDW last night/this morning. As previously mentioned, ORD broke the snowfall record for the date of 0.7" (1923).

That axis of snow last night and this morning from W IL into N IL ended up much more narrow than pretty much any model showed, even the NAM's, which usually do a fairly good job with banding. All guidance did a terrible job on amounts, and even QPF as well. Based on reports, it looks like the main axis was ~15mile wide with 1-3.5", and a DAB surrounding that.

They were all overdone. .

0.9” ORD so far. Breaks record for the date of 0.7” (1923). .

Truth. I mean half of that is from tonight alone.

More like hours out at this point.

18z Euro has an axis of 6-11" tonight across portions of N/C. IL. Then wraps up the system on Thursday, with another more widespread 3-7".

18z Euro...

A few stats I pulled for nearby areas. Based on guidance, many of these are in play...and some an easy lock. .....Chicago..... Snowiest October Days: 3.8" - 10/19/1989 & 3.0" - 10/20/1952 Snowiest Halloween: 0.1" - 2014 Snowiest Octobers: 6.3" - 1989 & 4.4" - 1967 .....Rockford..... Snowiest October Days: 5.0" - 10/23/1929 & 2.0" - 10/27/1925 + 10/29/1917 Snowiest Halloween: 0.1" - 2014 Snowiest Octobers: 5.0" - 1929 & 3.0" - 1917 .....Moline..... Snowiest October Days: 6.5" - 10/26/1967 & 2.9" - 10/25/1898 Snowiest Halloween: T - 1954/1939/1926/1918/1917/1908 Snowiest Octobers: 6.6" - 1967 & 2.9" - 1898 .....(Already at 1.1" on this month to date) .....Peoria..... Snowiest October Days: 3.3" - 10/23/1929 & 1.9" - 10/29/1925 Snowiest Halloween: T - 1918 Snowiest Octobers: 3.3" - 1929 & 1.9" - 1925 .....Milwaukee..... Snowiest October Days: 3.7" - 10/18/1989 & 2.6" - 10/20/1989 Snowiest Halloween: 0.4" - 1926 Snowiest Octobers: 6.3" - 1989 & 4.0" - 1976 .....(Already at 0.3" on this month to date)

Pulling a bunch of stats right now for select cities in the area...and as modeled, this is going to be a historic/record breaking event.

Won't even need much wind, given the leaf situation as of now. Probably will be tree damage tonight alone if there is an axis of 3-6".

There's no flooding to track.

Easy over a DAB. .

I can’t read confirmed. .

Backing off that 1-2” call, huh? .