Chicago Storm

High risk worthy derecho in progress.

****. .

DSM on north to Fort Dodge about to get rocked... .

With you, you never know. .

Not even. Should be E or ESE until it’s around here. .

That SPC outlook still needs some work. .

And we are on track. Gonna need a large moderate risk across Much of IA/S WI/N IL/N-C IN/SW MI. .

While most guidance has been tame for today (Monday), the HRRR and HRRRx develop a fast moving MCS/bow that sweeps across IA/IL/IN this morning into this evening. Digging into things a bit deeper, while the HRRR has been overzealous and alone on an island numerous times this spring and summer, the solution it spits out is actually fairly plausible in this case. The main trough and wave is currently diving into the Northern Plains from Canada, and along with it is a solid jet streak. This can all be seen very nicely on water vapor and IR satellite currently. There’s also a very nice power-keg environment out across portions of SD/NE/MN/IA currently as well, where initial development is expected within the next several hours. 4k+ cape, PWATS of 1.50”+, DP’s in the 70’s, a great EML with ML lapse rates ~9C, 50kts shear and the main wave and jet streak moving in. Should likely see development as the HRRR shows in SD and possibly NE within the next several hours, as capping erodes. The environment mentioned above is supportive of MCS formation, and a damaging wind threat. Now I won’t go as far as saying the derecho the HRRR/HRRRx have is going to occur across IA/IL/IN, but the setup is definitely supportive of something that could be quite good, as long as everything works out. Along the lines of everything working out...One potential caveat is the activity around MSP currently...Does it slowly fade away as it continues to drift east, or does it develop a nice cold pool and drive more SE, which would greatly affect the threat for some downstream areas outlined in this post. .

truth hurts sometimes. .

karma is a bitch sometimes. .

lol @ the Wisconsin quarantine order for Chicago. Good luck with that one. .

Doesn’t matter. As long as there is no enforcing it, it doesn’t matter much. .

MCV’s have produced well this season in the region. .

i read this as, “it’s patriotic”. .

Look who is on the mask bandwagon now. lulz .

He does that to himself.

zzz

ILX doing a horrific job with warnings this afternoon. They have now had two tornadoes go un-warned, and both storms had good couplets.

An lol worthy tiny tor watch... .

Severe threat will easily miss south of the area the rest of today, but rain/t’storms congealing across DVN and ILX CWA’s will spread across the area this evening. Without widespread/heavier/training t’storms, amounts should be kept in check though, unless south of I-80. .

lol @ thinking egotistical is name calling or a stereotype. .

Unless you're going into a place (store, restaurant, etc) that absolutely requires it, very few are wearing masks consistently around here anymore.

Easy toss... Unless 2020 works some magic. .

Well, given the opposite of what you say usually happens in the wx threads... .