Chicago Storm

Power outage numbers around N. Illinois keep bouncing up and down, as crews try to catch up and new outages roll in. Sitting at ~14k right now.

Truth hurts.

I'd say we only lost a minimal amount here, and the temp never got above 33 either. I noticed that it appears taller/mature trees further off the ground didn't really lose anything at all.

With the temps dropping, winds increasing and still a good amount of ice on trees...starting to see a lot of small branches coming down now.

With temps still only 32/33 around the area and slow melting, things are looking prime for tree damage/power outages. .

That’s not how you forecast though. You have to go with model guidance, and forecast based off of that. You can’t just go off of a hunch, that’s not how it works. Cyclone has low-balled his area every storm this season, except for this one. The problem is offices stuck with their original forecasts and did not alter things until it was much to late, LOT most significantly. It was pretty clear by 6-7PM that this was going to be an ice event for most areas and not a bigger snow or sleet event. However, LOT for example didn’t really catch up until several hours later. While NAM performed the best, it was even way off...with the snow/freezing rain line having made it into S. Wisconsin and north of DBQ. The warm “wedge” aloft was actually deeper and warmer than modeled by any guidance as well. .

Easily the most significant ice storm I can remember here. Trees are caked, saggy and straining. If this ice remains on the trees several hours from now when the winds pick up, tree damage and power outages will be widespread. .

Significant icing on trees around here now, many being weighed down. They're not even moving too much in a 10-20mph breeze from time to time either. Icing on pretty much all surfaces, with it stuck at 31/29 for several hours now.

LOT finally added the additional counties I mentioned earlier to the ice storm warning, and upped ice totals to 0.50"...which will probably still be low in a few areas, but beter off than before.

Started off as snow/sleet here early this evening for an hour or two, but has been FZRA ever since then. .

Would have northern tier in WSW.

Would have included Cook, DuPage, Will and Grundy as well.

That new LOT ice storm warning will already be busting before too long. Calling for 2-5" of fantasy snow, and 0.30" ice...which will be reached not too long from now in many areas.

LOT finally upgrades to ice storm warning for some counties, but still missed some.

Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well. Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now. .

This is just about as good as a set-up I've seen around here for sig ice across a good portion of the area. Given those earlier reports near GBG of 0.20", it should be fairly easy to get into at least the middle of that range.

Likely going to see an axis of 0.25-0.75" ice across Northern Illinois somewhere.

0.20" ice accrual report NE of Galesburg already.

Pretty clear the warmer NAM is the way to go, and the GFS will be set up for an lol worthy fail. Looks like a solid sleet/freezing rain event for a good portion of the LOT CWA.

Few weak LE bands pushing inland across NE. IL currently. It's actually snowing here now because of them.

That's one big positive from the last ice event... With that event we had temps of mid to upper 30's being advected in from MI/IN, but this go around we have temps in the mid 20's to low 30's being advected in. Additionally, we are going into this event colder days prior, unlike last time where there was that brief mild period prior.

Can't wait to see negative nancy Cyclone roll in with another 6"+ event when it ends.

The 12z RGEM following the NAM, and coming in SE. .

Likely would be WSW’s, given a mix of p-types. .

0.6" at ORD and here, from the snow with the lead wave on Sunday.