Chicago Storm

Questionable at best. .

turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI. .

Lookin’ pretty dire. How much for metfan? .

Man, that due W wobble must mean it’s gonna hit MIA. .

Love these ‘canes that get hyped and then go OTS. .

Decent hit today here with the first MCS. Ended up with some smaller tree branches down in the area, estimated winds up to around 60mph. Have been without power since the storms hit...Not due to the winds, but instead lighting. A tree was struck across the way, and took down a power pole and lines, and it all caught on fire. .

It's not just the HRRR. All guidance has struggled badly, both yesterday and today.

What a day... Hit 90 for the first time this year here this afternoon. The lake breeze passed around 6PM, and combined with the fact that the developing storms were along I-88 and moving ESE, I didn’t think we’d see anything. One storm managed to push NE though, along outflow that was surging NE as well, from the main activity further south. The storm was high based, and had that good picturesque high based structure. A nice hail shaft was clearly visible too as it moved in. The storm ended up maxing out as it passed overhead. Ended up with a solid nearly 5-10 minute period of hail, with a few of the biggest stones up to 2.25”. Strong winds up to 55-60mph also accompanied the hail, making for a quality downburst. Trees were shredded with leaves flying everywhere, due to the hail/wind combo. The wind ended up bringing down a few small branches in the area as well. There was also widespread road flooding, mostly due to the combination heavy rains with the downburst and tree debris clogging storm drains. Following the storm was a double rainbow, some mammatus, and a quality backlit view of the storms departing at sunset. There is still hail up to nearly penny size on the ground at this time, nearly 3 hours post storm. Believe it or not, this was the first storm to produce severe criteria activity IMBY since 2011. .

This MCS that has regenerated this morning and early afternoon looks likely to push SE/SSE alight the instability gradient in place, which runs down along the IL/IN border area. It has featured embedded areas of rotation at times in the SW/S metro, with a few wall cloud reports. Overall severe reports have been surprising low though, given wind and hail sigs on radar. Re-development of quality surface based activity later this afternoon and evening in a very nice environment ahead of the cold front and near the OFB across Iowa, S. WI/N. IL looks questionable...With slightly rising heights, subsidence in the wake of the current S/W, no formidable wave close upstream and a cap in place.

Yea, they were behind the ball on that one. Actually looks standard slight risk worthy as of now.

The one thing holding you guys back is the lack of a slider bar to scroll through model runs, as COD has.

Looks like this season will come down to June. Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though.

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May... Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond. LR GFS, but it shows it as well... .

See you in June.

Looks like weatherbell.

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0z GFS with the best looking potential of the season, with two quality Plains days next Wed/Thur. While it definitely looks like there will be severe in the Tue-Sat timeframe, potential multiple waves with non-stop convection and meridional flow issues are concerning at this range.

It's not good for anyone who missed the good days during that active week in late-May, as that's the only time this season really produced. Looks like the traditional chase season will end as it started. We'll see if there's any surprise events between now and the fall season.

Change that to Tuesday and Thursday-Sunday and I agree.

The first trough (Sat-Mon) is meh in terms of potential, but it does help with moisture return for the 2nd trough (Tue/Wed). As mentioned above by others, Tues looks sig on both the GFS/ECMWF. Still 6 days out, so we'll see how it progresses.

Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same. Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

Don't expect another worthy chase day for me until mid-month. Upcoming pattern until that point really doesn't look like anything more than run of the mill sort of events, though as Brett stated, something interesting could pop up on short notice.

It's good to hear you're alright, JoMo.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 400 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...EF-4 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JOPLIN... * DATE...22 MAY 2011 * MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4 * ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...198 MPH * ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 MILE * FATALITIES...116 * INJURIES...400 * THIS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WAS DETERMINED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DATA.