Chicago Storm
-
Posts
18,181 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Chicago Storm
-
The storm is so far north and more organized that synoptic snow saves the area, to a degree. .
-
This run is actually one of the further north yet, taking the SLP to PAH and EVV. .
-
I would be highly concerned. What looked like 6-10” across N. IL could end up 2-5”...plus LES from prone areas. .
-
12z NAM is coming in north, stronger and more organized with the storm. It’s also north with the FGEN band. .
-
It should be noted that the RAP/HRRR have been trending north and more organized with the storm for several runs now. However, they have also jumped north with the FGEN band as well, now fully taking it over MN to WI to MI. .
-
My guess is they might have been forced into it, due to having to collaborate with DVN/ILX/IND. I know Ricky was mentioning last night that if they go warning, it might only be for advisory amounts...and that’s pretty much what they did, going with 3-7”. .
-
6z NAM with sig changes. Trough is well organized once again, and SLP is further north with a more organized system. Might just be off hour shenanigans, or maybe not. We'll see at 12z and with other runs.
-
0z GGEM follows the trend as well. .
-
0z GFS coming in following the trend to a degree. Trough is more positive tilt and south, with the SLP weaker as well. .
-
3km NAM is likely correctly depicting the right gradient with the FGEN band, though totals are still question for now... .
-
Synoptic snow would end earlier on Saturday. However, totals stay the same in our neck of the woods that’s to the FGEN band. .
-
If this change sticks and continues with other guidance, it will be a big victory for the ECMWF/UKMET. .
-
Up north kicks out with the FGEN snows and the initial push of synoptic snow...but elsewhere will struggle with that solution. .
-
SFC low is well south, and UL 500mb is just pushing east. Will be a big step back from earlier runs. .
-
It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border. .
-
0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.
-
The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR. .
-
Trough a bit more neutral tilt and wave a bit more north. SLP did end up a bit north. Still on farther south end of guidance through.
-
It's due to the heavier FGEN snows being to your north, and the main synoptic snows to your south.
-
More organized trough this run, and a bit more neutral tilted earlier. This run is going to be more north and stronger/organized.
-
18z NAM...Yet again coming in a bit further north with the wave as it push across the coast and into the West.
-
It took a step, but still nowhere near other guidance. It actually has the same issue as the UKMET. The smaller waves ejecting out ahead of the main trough, which go into the phasing of everything, eject out sooner and are faster...thus the trough ends up more positive tilt.
-
12z ECMWF is finally caving and coming north. Not sure to what degree yet though.
-
LOT issued WSW as well. Will be out shortly.
-
If you want a really far north option...Check out the 15z RAP...
.thumb.png.405a0b6a1cc1b2dc47d706ab9b88a8b7.png)
.thumb.png.3b1efedf2c2cee98ffb5427211df7285.png)
.png.c763d96d7458e929e01622ad13e514a4.png)
.png.3e8c5637674ce3002ee653e3fb7e9503.png)
