Chicago Storm
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RAP/HRRR/NAM all in lock step for 6-10" along and north of I-88 in N. Illinois, with the highest toals in a narrow gradient from the Quad Cities to just north of ORD.
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RAP has been coming in wetter for some areas, with nice snows likely across a good portion of MDX-DVN-LOT CWA...
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You'll be surprised then at least.
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You're golden for another 6"+ event.
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I would be a bit weary of it, given it differs and is more significant than any other guidance.
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70/30 shot it under-performs.
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Agree. However, with that FGEN band looking fairly transient and under-performing so far, it might not be as big of a deal in the end. We shall see I guess.
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Lake effect headlines were discontinued, so it would be WWA or WSW.
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It's a nice/strong FGEN band. However, it has under-performed further west...Most guidance has a large axis of 7-11" across South Dakota, where only 2-5" actually occurred.
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I haven't looked at soundings since yesterday, but at that time 13-15:1 was a good range.
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It looks like the only areas that both FGEN and synoptic snow will overlap is S. Wisconsin into S. Michigan.
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The storm is so far north and more organized that synoptic snow saves the area, to a degree. .
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This run is actually one of the further north yet, taking the SLP to PAH and EVV. .
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I would be highly concerned. What looked like 6-10” across N. IL could end up 2-5”...plus LES from prone areas. .
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12z NAM is coming in north, stronger and more organized with the storm. It’s also north with the FGEN band. .
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It should be noted that the RAP/HRRR have been trending north and more organized with the storm for several runs now. However, they have also jumped north with the FGEN band as well, now fully taking it over MN to WI to MI. .
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My guess is they might have been forced into it, due to having to collaborate with DVN/ILX/IND. I know Ricky was mentioning last night that if they go warning, it might only be for advisory amounts...and that’s pretty much what they did, going with 3-7”. .
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6z NAM with sig changes. Trough is well organized once again, and SLP is further north with a more organized system. Might just be off hour shenanigans, or maybe not. We'll see at 12z and with other runs.
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0z GGEM follows the trend as well. .
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0z GFS coming in following the trend to a degree. Trough is more positive tilt and south, with the SLP weaker as well. .
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3km NAM is likely correctly depicting the right gradient with the FGEN band, though totals are still question for now... .
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Synoptic snow would end earlier on Saturday. However, totals stay the same in our neck of the woods that’s to the FGEN band. .
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If this change sticks and continues with other guidance, it will be a big victory for the ECMWF/UKMET. .
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Up north kicks out with the FGEN snows and the initial push of synoptic snow...but elsewhere will struggle with that solution. .
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SFC low is well south, and UL 500mb is just pushing east. Will be a big step back from earlier runs. .
