Chicago Storm
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If you think the 0z NAM is north, try the 0z RGEM... It only goes to 48hrs, but it has a 999mb SLP over OKC at 48hr. The NAM is ~1003MB near Fredrick, OK along the Red River.
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One big observation on the 0z NAM is that the following wave crashing into the PAC NW is actually helping lower heights with the Western ridge. This might help kick our the southern trough, possibly northeast a bit eventually.
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NAM is going to be well north, many factors in play.
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NAM definitely going to be better and probably north. Southern wave is stronger, neutral tilt trough sooner, more ridging over Midwest/OV and less ridging over Western states earlier.
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0z NAM is coming in north with the southern wave entering the West Coast once again.
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Nice jump from previous runs in earlier hours. There's actually a greater number of them above the mean as well. They also have a period of 1-4"/hr snowfall rates Friday night/Saturday morning. The mean is closer to 1-2"/hr.
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Nice changes on the GFS...
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18z GFS is following the trend. Southern wave came onshore further north, does not dig as much, and is more consolidated.
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Need that wave to come in slightly north again on the West Coast, and go a bit neutral tilt a bit faster...then close off at 500mb and maybe pull a bit ENE instead of east. Not really far off from that scenario at all.
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If the trend of a more west placed and slightly slower northern wave, with a further north/less diving southern wave continues things could end up even more interesting.
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Talk about a change... .
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Welcome to phasing and a neutral tilt southern trough. .
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The NAM is doing things... .
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Indeed. This seems to be a continuing trend. Northern wave a bit west too. .
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There are many things, and most are positive. -The heights with the ridge out in the West have trended lower, with additional waves moving in and topping the ridge sooner. -The southern trough is becoming more compact and neutral tilt, with a crisp trough. -There is also more riding ahead of the southern trough, in the East. -Finally you have a slower northern stream wave, we just can’t have this end up being too slow... .
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That's not the issue at all. This loop shows what the changes have been...
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It started that way, then actually ended up further south. In the end, the southern stream trough ended up further south and is more positive tilt. The northern stream too a big jump east too.
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12z ECMWF will likely bump north.
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Long time no see...Still down the road in Elgin I see as well. I think either way right now, start time should be Friday evening/early Friday night as the FGEN snows move in.
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It has been a while, but I'd say it's unlikely given synoptic snows will be heavily involved. This is the last winter LE headlines are in play too, with winter headline simplification coming soon.
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Stop looking at just the surface. .
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The 12z GFS came north. .
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12z NAM with a decent jump north. Northern stream was slower, and southern stream trough didn’t dig as deep, along with the wave rounding the base much more this run. Additionally, waves ejecting out ahead of the main southern wave were stronger, and bridged the gap between the southern and northern waves, allowing for some slight phasing. .
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It's well south of 12z. The northern stream ended up further west and really dug into MI/WI/MI, which is good for phasing. However, the southern stream ended up much more positive tilt and just continued on east, before phasing over the SE Coast...instead of pushing NE and phasing over the Ohio Valley.
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The individual members moved south and weaker overall, no doubt.
