Chicago Storm

Looked good this morning...good enough for me to head west to Dixon. Warm front/triple point looked like the main play...With decent instability, good moisture and great shear in place, plus much more clearing then expected. Then when I got out to Dixon and was sitting there for a bit, clouds and rain magically redeveloped and streamed back north across W. IL and further north, killing the threat.

Indeed...

April '19 the 6th snowiest April on record for Chicago... 1. 13.6" - 1938 2. 10.7" - 1970 3. 10.6" - 1982 4. 10.0" - 1975 5. 8.8" - 1961 6. 7.9" - 2019 7. 6.9" - 1910 8. 6.6" - 1926 9. 6.4" - 1920 10. 4.8" - 1936

Downtown Davenport, IA under a FFE due to levee failure. Levee has failed and is flooding the downtown area at this time.

LOT dropping the ball with headlines once again...In this case flood headlines. Should have been under a flood watch for this multi-day period. Had 0.50-1,00" precip across the area on Saturday, with soils saturated from that. Then round one Sun night-Mon afternoon dropped 1-2" of rain, which cause widespread flooding (field, yard, some prone roads) and a rise in area creeks/rivers some some in flood now. This second main round coming in from now through tomorrow morning will easily drop another 2-4" across the area, with locally higher amounts possible if things pan out correctly. Then there's a third round on Thursday, though that is still up in the air rainfall amount wise.

Widespread 1-2" rainfall totals across the area from the heavy rain and t'storms last night and this morning. ORD picked up 1.54" with that first round. The second round from tomorrow morning into Wednesday morning should drop another 1-3" across the area, then a third round for Wednesday night into Thursday.

Surprisingly still have a few remnant piles left.

Finished with 5.5” here. .

RFD finished with 3.7” .

Looks like the main axis will end up with widespread totals in the 3-6" range, with isolated 6"+ totals.

Haven’t been home for this one yet, but word is 1.5” there as of a bit ago. Has been snowing nicely from MBY to ORD corridor for a while now. .

R/S line pretty much stationary along I-88 now looks like.

Widespread TSSN in NW. IA currently. A couple of 3-4" reports in that area a bit ago as well.

Cooling and a flip to snow is occurring rapidly. DBQ down to 33 and FEP 32. Snow is now moving into the NW and W suburbs. The HRRR can be fully tossed.

Just gonna leave this here...

With the exception of the NAM, all 12z guidance shifted south. Getting closer to a historic and record breaking event being a lock around here. .

I'm pulling for this one to shift south...I'm always in for historic/record events. As of now, looks like agreement on 6"+ getting into the northern tier across N. IL.

Nice Spring we have ongoing here.

First 80F temp of the year at ORD today.

Yesterday was one of the warmer Easter's on record for Chicago... 85 - 4/10/1977 83 - 4/11/1971 82 - 4/18/1976 82 - 4/21/1946 82 - 4/13/1941 81 - 4/10/1955 81 - 3/27/1910 79 - 4/20/2014 79 - 3/30/1986 79 - 4/17/1927 79 - 4/12/1935 78 - 4/19/1987 78 - 4/10/1887 77 - 4/21/2019 76 - 4/4/2010 76 - 3/26/1989

Yea, they were behind the ball on that one. Actually looks standard slight risk worthy as of now.

Speaking of... .

Didn't happen, and not too surprising.

Looks like a highly conditional threat across NE. IA/S. WI/N. IL this afternoon and evening int the vicinity of the warm front and triple point. The big issue looks to be a strong cap in place, and fairly weak forcing that might not be enough to overcome the capping. If we can get activity to go though, there's definitely a tor risk given the environment in place.

Huh? ORD had 5.4"