LibertyBell

Don, would JFK be in the same 5-10 range?

Don if we get 6 or more inches of snow from this storm doesn't that significantly increase the chances for a normal snowfall to even above normal snowfall winter? Also aren't the last 10 days of Dec looking much colder now with more chances of snowfall?

the biggest presolstice snowstorms were in 1948 and 1960 in the 15-16 range, interesting. Dec 2003 is right up there too and almost made it to 20 on Long Island

it would be an uncivil war each and every day

Could you imagine if they ever tried to put NYC in the New England thread?! Forum WW3!

wow interesting! You're going to chase the eclipse of course ;-) I'm looking around for the best place to see it in, thinking of going to Watertown....would you recommend that?

Tony.....

Don do you have a probability breakdown for the various amounts for JFK, Allentown and Mt Pocono? Thanks in advance. There seems to be a major change between 10" and 12" for some reason....like NYC going from 80 percent to 43 percent. I wonder if JFK is similar to this.

wow 12/2015 really did break all sorts of warm records, never would have guessed there was a 30 incher on the way a month later or below zero on Valentines Day lol

seems like both 1966-67 and 2010-11

The most unfortunate part of the official record is that New York City (as in The Battery at that time) recorded close to 100 inches of snow in the season before official records began.

wow this is some unexpectedly historic stuff. When I used to sit in my college library and analyze old snowfall records at NYC and Philly (and there were plenty of records going all the way back to the late 1700s and complete documentation of the 1800s), I never expected that we would ever exceed those numbers! That was part of the reason I loved reading about those times. I wondered how people handled it without electricity. But now, although we dont have nearly the kind of hardship that existed back then (yes, even with the current pandemic, life must've been much tougher back then), we can now say we've had bigger snowstorms and snowfall totals in recorded history than ever before!

what happened to our end of December thaw lol?

I see another interesting tidbit in there- February is going to finish with a 10.1 inch average- when was the last time we had a 30 year monthly average in double digits?

maybe what we have been talking about is now coming to fruition, the aberrant behavior of our new climate norms has simply become too complex to boil it down to just ENSO. There are larger factors at play which are going to cause different outcomes because of the changing background state.

wait something just occurred to me, NYC still has a chance to attain the 30 inch avg for the 30 year climate period doesn't it and the decade doesn't it? The decade doesn't end until Dec 31st night!

Not a UFO but I did get a picture of the Horsehead Nebula through my very light polluted side yard (there's a post office parking lot nearby that stays lit up all night.

what was the low at JFK compared to FOK, Chris?

I was looking for the northern lights tonight but couldn't see them but as luck would have it, I saw a bright meteor streaking below Sirius that was just about as bright as Sirius itself! Also as luck would have it, my camera was sitting on its tripod pointed right at the meteor.....but with a drained battery! =\ I think this was an early Geminid, and the shower is supposed to peak Saturday night (when it's supposed to be cloudy here) but I should have one more night to see the shower tomorrow night (and maybe Sunday night again?)...so I'm recharging the battery now. Looks like the peak of the Geminids is actually Sunday night- Monday morning, so I'll have a few more chances!

at this point, 6" of sleet would be exciting

I remember back then February's averaged colder than january's and both averaged in the 20s....found an old Weather Almanac that had temps from the 1700s and 1800s!

wow that entire period sucked out here, not a single double digit snowfall event between 1983 and 1993 here and no 30" snowfall seasons between 1979 and 1994 No snow days for me in that entire period on western LI

the year before snowfall measurements became official it's said that NYC got 100"

December 15th....it's the "BlueWave" storm. He mentioned it first so it's going to be named after him if it happens. If not....it's the "BlueWave" bust lol.

I think he missed the point.....by a bit lol.