LibertyBell

He vastly oversimplified and you know as well as I do how "one size doesn't fit all". Weather doesn't just go "west to east"- it also goes south to north (coastals) and north to south (arctic highs) and southwest to northeast (colorado lows) and northwest to southeast (clippers). The reason why weather is inherently unpredictable is because it's so complex and doesn't follow a simple set of rules like that. The inherent uncertainly about weather is the reason why making absolute statements is just plain dumb.

lol looking at this list, the most recent entries were all blockbuster winters, (everything from 48-49 and later)....the earliest two not so much. A majority of them seemed to happen in February and in the middle of winter you dont need a perfect pattern to get a 6" storm....in 07-08 we got 6-8 in an SSW event that changed to drizzle at the end.

it's happening in the upper midwest too, they've had spring type flooding in Minesota.

Wasnt that winter very similar to 2001-02 in that we had very little snow here in both, but the south got dumped on? I remember 2002 had a big snowstorm in the Carolinas and I think something similar happened in 1973?

1984-85 was actually a mild winter, with a period of extreme cold in January. That was cold and dry by the way, and not really what you want. 80s Januarys were typically very cold and dry.

No it's the result of having a different climate lol. If you look back decade by decade, average temps keep increasing. January was one of the few holdouts, until now.

it's actually better for us if it happens later. I was thinking 5-10 but you're saying 10-15 is more likely? Don what do you think of this "threat" on the 3rd? I think it's a bit too soon, the models sometimes jump on something too quickly.

Models represent our incomplete knowledge. Meteorological models might be the least accurate models in all the sciences. I can sit here and tell you about all the eclipses that will happen from now to a 1000 years from now but weather models are highly inaccurate beyond 3 days or so. It represents the state of the science right now.

I'm still planning on coming back to the tristate on the 3rd. Pretty sure the weather will be fine then, it's the period between the 5th and the 10th that needs to be watched more closely.

peak winter usually begins in the latter part of January. but anyway this is probably more common than not hitting 90 in July.

I cant wait until humankind advances to the point that we can geoengineer the climate so we wont have to bitch about something we cant control.

at the shore here you dont get any pure snowstorms without atlantic blocking. If you look at the list of significant snowstorms here, very few happen without a cooperative AO/NAO

Yes it was a marginal improvement, nothing major, but just enough to slightly shift things (sometimes that's all it takes.) This area almost always has a rain/snow/mix line within the region so something that could shift that line say 5-10 miles could make a big difference.

The creepiest thing about that storm is that on the night that storm commenced the news was talking about finding several bodies buried on Long Island south shore beaches, evidence of a serial killer having operated there for a few years. Still haven't found out who it was.

It can actually be seen immediately after snowfalls when models start to correct to colder scenarios. I distinctly remember this happening in 1993-94 and meteorologists talking about how snowcover was making airmasses colder than what the models had progged them to be before the snowstorm occurred. It also affected the track of storms (they were tracking farther south than originally progged to) because of more than expected cold air pushing southward. I wonder if the same might have been the case in 2010-11 which you might remember was forecast to be a mostly snowless winter, but it all turned on a dime on Boxing Day and then we had a very snowy stretch for about 5 weeks with long duration snowcover. It makes me wonder if that completely unexpected snowstorm hadn't occurred, how the following 5 weeks would have turned out

That winter also had a decent event in February that brought down a crane in Manhattan. JFK had 40" and other parts of Long Island had 50" And we were below zero for Valentine's Day! Considering it started with the warmest December ever, that was a good winter (and Xmas Eve was actually 72 degrees!)

You dont buy the concept that a persistent snowcover from an early season snowstorm breeds more cold air and blocking resulting in a higher probability of more snowstorms in the next few weeks immediately after that initial storm?

Yeah this is true, you cant hang on individual model runs. 1st ten days of January signal has been there consistently. Also LOL if the NAO/AO weren't critical for 6"+ snowstorms then they wouldn't consistently be brought up in reference to them- and weather also moves south to north (especially during big storms) and north to south with reference to high pressure, saying weather always moves west to east is a vast oversimplification.

The one that set the surge records in Boston and was like a 50% version of the Jan 2016 blizzard (because it had three hours of verified blizzard conditions at JFK, while Jan 2016 had six). We had white out conditions all day during that storm in Jan 2018! I think that was one of two major snow storms that winter. Those 30 year December averages are going to be significantly higher when they get calculated at the end of the month.

I wonder when the last time was that we had a cold December lol, they dont seem to happen all that much.

It's comical how they twist and turn with each model run. And even the south shore here got about 8 inches.....and the snow lasted for over a week. Nothing to whine about over.

mild Novembers have historically been linked to snowy seasons, we had six out of six up between 55-56 and 93-94. A lot better than getting a prewinter snowfall at any rate. as for la ninas; some of our snowiest Decembers and Januarys have happened during La Ninas. I like La Nina for the early part of the season a lot better than El Ninos. If you want to look at what's really going on, it all has to do with that warm water off the north Pacific. But the bridge jumping is hilarious, the 5-10 period is the one to look at and the people who twist and turn with each model run are hilarious (as if these models are even remotely accurate at that time range.)

for me it's 2016 (but 95-96 and 02-03 too)

tell that to the people that had flooding and water in their basements

I'd rather have sunshine.