LibertyBell

so the storm is shifting west and also getting larger longitudinally on that AI model, Don?

The question is why do suppression, hugger and cutter tracks become more common with a faster Pacific but benchmark tracks become less common? What's so special about benchmark tracks that cause the opposite reaction vs the other tracks?

I'm glad they took my suggestion seriously, some of the people in that subforum need to be gagged and tied up for a few years.

found this, it's quite interesting https://www.nyhistory.org/blogs/a-word-about-the-weather Meteorology record of George Hodgsden, showing the coldest daylight temperatures ever recorded in new York City on January 10, 1859. Hodgsden Weather Diary, MS 1828 According to the Encyclopedia of New York, merchant William Laight and his son Henry were the first to maintain an extended record of New York weather, beginning in 1788. The Society has the weather diaries of Henry, covering 1795-1803 and 1816-1822, noting the temperature, wind, precipitation and/or clouds, lunar phase and a brief entry about the day’s events. Similar data were recorded by a variety of people, including farmers, seamen, and military officers, and for any number of reasons, as shown by the “Thermometrical Observations” kept by George B. Hodgsden, secretary for the Knickerbocker Fire Insurance Co. In that diary is recorded the coldest month on record, January 1857, and the coldest daytime temperature on January 10, 1859, during which the mercury remained below zero the entire day. By the second half of the nineteenth century, numerous organizations were keeping records, among them was Dr. Daniel Draper, who organized the New York Meteorological Observatory in 1869. Although Central Park’s meteorological observations have long been associated with Belvedere Castle, the NYMO first headquartered at the Arsenal. “New York State Arsenal”, the first home to the New York Meteorological Observatory. Manual of the Corporation of the City of New York. The Council: New York, 1850. An interesting side story is an 1825 New York State law requiring academies accredited by the Regents of the University of the State of New York to report meteorological observations to the Regents. Those data were subsequently compiled and made publicly available through publication, such as in the volume shown below. The practice is also demonstrated by neatly-kept volumes that appear in the records of Brooklyn’s Erasmus Hall High School. Results of a Series of Meteorological Observations… Albany: Weed Parson & Company, 1855. Erasmus Hall High School Records, MS 201

Yes, it was a mini January 2016. 15 inches in 12 hours instead of 30 inches in 24 hours lol... 6 hours of true blizzard conditions vs 12 hours of true blizzard conditions. It happened during the day and you could not see anything outside for hours it was a true white out!

My last real blizzards were January 2016 and January 2018, both were great day time long duration white out snowstorms.

I think January 2016 and January 2018 both had like 11:1 ratios with stronger winds of longer duration. So, it won't be 15:1 but up to 12:1 is definitely possible.

wow thanks Chris, maybe these go in cycles too-- there was a cluster in the 60s and another one in the late 70s. But only one in the 80s and then none at all for 16 years until 2001! I'm surprised we didn't have any at all in the 90s considering how snowy it was in 93-94 and 95-96!! None in the 00s after 2001 either, I'm shocked we didn't have any between 02-03 and 04-05!! Early 10s had another cluster and then of course the one associated with the big blizzard in January 2016. February 2021-- was that the one associated with the Groundhogs Day snowstorm? So this strong block can have lingering effects with more snowstorm possibilities right to the end of February before the pattern changes in early March? From the above list-- big snowstorms associated with big blocks since 1960: February 1969 February 1978 December 2009 February 2010 (multiple) December 2010 January 2016 February 2021 From the above list-- big arctic outbreaks associated with big blocks since 1960 February 1963 January 1977 January 1985 I added February 1963 after I read this https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/baby-its-cold-outside-a-history-of-single-digit-temperatures-in-new-york-city Temperatures of zero or below have been reported just eleven times since 1970, with the coldest reading of 2° below zero occurring on three occasions: Jan. 17, 1977; Jan. 21, 1985; and Jan. 19, 1994. There has been just one sub-zero reading this century and it occurred during the mild winter of 2016, when the mercury dropped to -1° on Valentine's Day. Not only was it a record for the date, it was also the first below zero reading since 1994, the first to occur in February since 1963, and the latest date for a sub-zero reading since 1934.

I'll hopefully be getting the best of both storms, leaving for the Poconos in one hour and will return Tuesday or Wednesday.

we have another chance at a snowstorm at the end of February.

that was an unreal 1800s kind of winter

Best part is we will finally get a day time blizzard! This could be the best one here since January 2016.

I'll revise, I think they'll be 12:1 based on past storms like this even with the high winds. Temperatures will be in the 20s and the snow will be dry and powdery.

it's perfect the heaviest snow will be falling during the day Thursday with temperatures in the 20s and the winds gusting up to 50 mph! On the Euro, the only mixing issues I saw were south of Atlantic City and east of Riverhead. I said *mixing issues* because although it looks like the mix line will get as far north as Toms River and as far west as Fire Island, it doesn't cause lowering of snowfall totals until you're south of Atlantic City or east of Riverhead. 24 hour blizzard Midnight Thursday to Midnight Friday.

10:1

only eastern long island mixes though

The tuck rule?

Wasn't February 1978 tucked in though? I've seen satellite images where it looked like a hurricane with an eye due south of Long Island. I guess it depends on what type of storm. Some storms that tuck into the coast are so strong that they wrap cold air all the way around the storm. The Millenium storm was like that too.

The GFS will give you insomnia. Luckily, I go to bed at 10 PM before any of this stuff comes out and read it when I wake up.

They are both toxic.

It appears AI has a sense of humor. I'm headed to the Poconos this morning ahead of the snow and ahead of congestion pricing lol.

it's the same paper but I can't post the link so I just quoted from it, it shows the lower verification scores of 6z and 18z and which type of data are not ingested in those runs.

yes it's specifically less new land RAOBs, but still some new data I posted a pdf about it a few years ago file:///C:/Users/CosmicQuantum/Pictures/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf I don't know if this is the same paper you posted but I'll take a look All cycles have been steadily improved. • 12Z cycle is comparable to 00Z cycle. • 06Z and 18Z cycles are worse than 00Z and 12Z cycle GFS 06Z and 18Z cycle are less skillful than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. • The difference in the NH is the largest 06Z data count is always less (10~30%) than other cycles. • Even though the 18Z-cycle forecast score is worse than that of the 00Z cycle, 18Z conventional data count is not less than 00Z data count! Note even though the total number of land soundings is almost the same among the four cycles, 06Z and 18Z have much less land RAOBs than the 00Z and 12Z cycles ! 18Z and 00Z have the same amount of conventional data, but 18Z has worse forecast skills than 00Z. On the other hand, 12Z has less conventional data than 00Z, but 12Z and 00Z have similar forecast skills. 06Z and 18Z cycles have 10 to 20 times less land rawinsonde observations than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. Is the lack of RAOBS responsible for the lower forecast scores of the 06Z and 18Z cycles? More investigation is required to understand its impact. The forecast skills of GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as that of the 00Z and 12Z cycles.

the one with the historic arctic outbreak that defined that entire decade

yep, 6z and 18z don't include the new upper air data