LibertyBell

Thanks Chris....any data on the accuracy numbers before and after the change?

Canonical anything no longer exists thanks to the new patterns setting up thanks to human induced climate change. The good thing is we'll be heating up the planet through at least 2050! Maybe all the added plastic is having an effect too

Noticed the other years mentioned were 2014 and 2015.....also winters where we had big turnarounds between December and January.

Expecting 3-6 here in the Poconos at 2000 ft.

Yep, this is what I've been saying. Not only is the whole causal connection an illusion so is the whole W->E illusion.

exhibit A is January in the 1980s, lots of Arctic air and very little snow. I like milder Januarys and snow a lot better.

you dont need Arctic cold for snow....I guess some of us drank too much to remember the last decade or so.

Maybe they should keep running it every 24 hrs....running a model every 6 hours seems to impair its usefulness. Happy New Year, Chris!

whats with all this rain, Don? It seems to be like pulling teeth to get a couple of sunny days around here. Happy New Year!

oh sure flakes, I saw you talking about disruptions to football games, I figured you were talking about an MECS lol.

if it's going to rain, why can't we get a warm rain?

I wouldn't stress out over it, there's more of a chance of getting hit by lightning from that storm than getting snow to the coast.

And that was a nice long duration storm! What was the reason NYC couldn't break their late season curse of not getting 10" events after February? That has been going on since 1993. Is it because the urban heat island makes it much more difficult to get late season big events because of the much higher sun angle? They weirdly didn't get much in April 1996 either while JFK had 5".

I so clearly remember this- I think the first time I realized its importance was before the storm in April 1996. If you remember Chris, we had an intense night of radiational cooling here on Long Island the night before the big storm and clouds started moving in just at daybreak, which was ideal in limiting the warmth of the sun while maximizing the radiational cooling that occured the night before the storm. I noticed that the storm was snow right from the outset here on the south shore of Nassau County with temps in the mid 30s and the rain/snow line stayed well south of us through the entire event and as the snow got heavier around 4 PM in the afternoon the skies got darker and the temps started to drop and the snow even started to stick to the roads before the sun set.

How long before we see a sub 900mb monster "Cat 5" low in the Arctic regions?

I'd be extremely cautious in calling Canada progressive. I'm sure you know about Alberta's dirty tar sands projects that are polluting wildlife areas and they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels (forecast to double within the 10 years), even with all the widespread protests by the native american communities as well as environmental activists. They could keep that going for 400 years if they were to completely take all the carbon out of the ground there. So let me ask you this-- why should the Trudeau administration be viewed as anything other than a lying hypocrisy that needs to be voted out when they are scaling up production of dirty fossil fuels from the Tar Sands? Why are they going backwards when we should all be going forwards and how should we as a global community be punishing them to de-incentivize this kind of bad behavior? We should be punishing ALL nations that do bad behavior like this that has global implications.

too many lol and all of them between 4th grade and high school graduation for me (and also my first couple of years of college).

looks like anywhere from 2-6 for my part of the Poconos at 2000 ft.

or north and west of Philly for that matter

and my high school winters

whats with these two different numbers listed for Upton? SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON (NATIONAL WX SERVICE) 7.9 500 PM (6.7 ON THE GROUND)

Yeah same here, 15-16 inches on the western part of the south shore of LI and no changeover

15-16 inches here in SW Nassau County, was amazing to see on a track like that, it never changed over.

PS also something a bit extra if you can find the info on this.....can you post a list of all the storms that've dropped 20" or more at one of the NYC official stations (NYC/EWR/JFK/LGA) and also dropped 20" or more at either ABE or MPO?

actually two of the very best occurred in the 70s and 80s.....Feb 1978 and Feb 1983. I recently found out that my second home in the Poconos got 30" in Feb 1978 and also over 2 feet in Feb 1983, that's pretty amazing considering that my first home on Long Island also got over 2 feet from the same storms! There's a select list of only a few storms that have dropped two feet plus in both locations; Jan 1996, Feb 2003 and Jan 2016 are also on that list.