LibertyBell

Rainfall in Ocean City approaching 6 inches already...getting reports that the wind field is starting to expand.

Yep and the tropical forum is pretty quiet. Best to keep it here where we've been tracking it for days.

Yet another thing to have to kill. I have been spraying nonstop this season.

You're right about that, I just think it has to be a different reason other than SST. Maybe July normally has more shear than either August or September in the areas where these things usually form? The only memorable July storm I can think of that reached our area was Bertha in July 1996. It hit Wilmington, NC at nearly Cat 3 status (I think it was the earliest major hurricane at the time) and it rode up right along the coast and it was a 65 mph tropical storm when it hit land again near JFK. Close to hurricane force gusts near Babylon and up to 7" of rain in the Poconos.

forecasts are for 2-3" in eastern PA and in the Poconos.

It hasn't been that rare to see a TS make landfall in NJ....we had Irene in 2011 and then Sandy 2012. I dont get this unprecedented July thing, the waters are just as warm in July as they are in August. The warmest they usually get up around here are low to mid 70s and that's where we are now. Upper 70s down by Atlantic City.

Was that the one that hooked into Atlantic City? Closest analog to Sandy. We might be revisiting that in a month or two at this rate.

Euro also moved west not that far from the GFS. Looks like a general 2"+ from eastern PA to LI based on the forecasts I've been looking at.

I'm envisioning something like August 1893. We've also been seeing tracks closer to the coast in the past decade or so, not the Eastern Long Island/New England tracks like what Gloria and Bob had.

Sounds a bit like 2011- remember that one? Big heat in July around the time of the wx conference in Baltimore and then epic rains in August from a few different systems, including Irene.

This is probably just an appetizer for what comes this way later in the season.

very typical for storms up this way, heaviest rains west of the track highest winds east of the track- see Bertha 7/96

Interesting Cone.....they have it strengthening to 50 mph right over Atlantic City.

Looks like Allentown is a good place to be for this storm ;-)

Sounds like it will peak right around the time the big heat peaks around here- if it's in the Big Dipper at that point it's going to be really high up in the sky and should be visible even over any tall buildings that usually block the view.

I expected this to get more press, but you dont hear about it in the media at all. And how is it we weren't told about a comet approaching months ago? Was this just discovered? Also, they didn't say how far up in the NE sky to look?

wow, it's a rare day to see NYC exceed EWR! also on the day before, 7/5, did you record LGA's high temp as 96.8?!

Right, this has happened numerous times..... heaviest rainfall is west of the track and highest winds are east of the track. Floyd illustrated this well, but there were numerous other examples of this. Another example is Bertha from July 1996 that came over JFK with 65 mph winds.....Babylon recorded hurricane force gusts at around 75 mph but the heaviest rains were over the Poconos where 7" of rain was recorded.

Yep, I'm envisioning us needing something like what we had last July when JFK reached 99 on back to back days with record high heat indices near 120. We just need to get a tad bit hotter than that......

Hi there, neighbor! :-) I guess you too got those storms yesterday? We've gotten heavy rains every other day this week- Monday, Wednesday and now hopefully Friday. I'll be back in Long Island next week and hope to catch a 100 degree day there at the end of the week ;-) This is exciting weather for summer!

Don what do you think the chances are that July averages at or above 80 degrees and we (as in either NYC or JFK) have at least one 100 degree day? Chances seem to be increasing.....

nooo it's nice to see a 100 once in awhile on Long Island makes the summer much more memorable!

lol I believe JFK has a better chance to hit 100 than NYC does.

Chris, what day will be the peak of the heat and the best chances for us here in SW Nassau to hit 100?

Looks like it will be 4-5" here in the Poconos vs 1-2" at my regular home on the south shore of Nassau County. Forecasts are for wind gusts up to 50 mph?