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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    so no more threats after the 12th-13th?
  2. LibertyBell
    it was pretty good in Feb 2006 though. That said March can be pretty good in this ENSO state
  3. LibertyBell
    Maybe we wont even get that much rain and wind if the storm develops so late. I take it that 0.6 on the edges shouldn't be believed lol
  4. LibertyBell
    Yeah I'm more like east-central PA right now, one county north of Allentown, but the 2,000 ft elevation is sure going to help.
  5. LibertyBell
    thats an interesting quandary, whats a better place to be, NE PA at 2000 ft where the best snows could be to my east, or the south shore of nassau county, where the best snows could be just to my north?
  6. LibertyBell
    and Jan into Feb!
  7. LibertyBell
    I cant wait until some mad scientist develops climate engineering technology and sends us into the next ice age.
  8. LibertyBell
    the lack of 30 inch snowfall winters from 1978-79 through 1992-93 is unmatched in the recorded history of NYC
  9. LibertyBell
    whats the purpose of issuing 14 day forecasts anyway, all funds should be used to make 5 day forecasts as good as can be and just dont spend any money beyond that. Allocate funds to where better results are possible, not in fantasy land.
  10. LibertyBell
    I ignored winter after 1995-96 I knew it could never get any better so I just quit paying attention to the weather, I dont even remember what those winters were like. It's easier to have a very snowy winter and then not have another one for a few years than to never have experienced it (which is what happened for me in the 80s and early 90s) and always wonder what one would be like....
  11. LibertyBell
    we even had one in April that year with a blizzard and cold air for a week!
  12. LibertyBell
    I was looking at the Euro ensembles, they're all over the place! Storms like this could really use a track cone like we have for TCs lol.
  13. LibertyBell
    Yeah those things seem to be just as unpredictable as they were 30 years ago hence why noreasters are so hard to forecast 3 days out.
  14. LibertyBell
    We place way too much focus on ENSO, I have a feeling this would have been the case even without a La Nina. In a neutral phase for example. We might need a really strong El Nino to break this pattern (maybe next year lol). I wouldn't mind another 2015-16. Sacrifice December for a whopper come January/February.
  15. LibertyBell
    Yup, I'm just opening this is the beginning of a nice window and we'll score a hit or two in the next two weeks when it'll be much colder than it is now.
  16. LibertyBell
    thats what I'm wondering about- why was the 50/50 "not expected" we used to have these kinds of errors 30 years ago too, seems like some situations are so complex that the prediction error has remained about the same as back then. Fair weather can be predicted just fine, even mid range cold and mild shots, but the things we really care about, like storms like this, they're just as unpredictable as they ever were. Even 2 days out lol
  17. LibertyBell
    it's not about luck though, this was never going to be a coastal snowstorm even with the perfect track.
  18. LibertyBell
    funny thing is, Walt, that we still dont have an agreement on the models and the storm is 2 days away. Back in the 80s and 90s we didn't have a good idea about these storms two to three days out either, so I wonder where things have really improved in the past 30 years. Is this uncertainty due to the atmosphere just being so complex that even with the rapid improvement of technology that we still haven't caught up?
  19. LibertyBell
    I'm at 2000 ft NW of the city through Monday so I'm excited about the storm but I'm also excited about when I get back because it looks like we'll have about a 10 day window between Dec 10 and 20 when it could get quite wintry at the coast.
  20. LibertyBell
    well it's ended here now but looks like a winter postcard scene outside
  21. LibertyBell
    what about that day in February when we hit 80?
  22. LibertyBell
    some of my favorite storms of all time, but I think Jan 2016 tops the list. That infamous Feb 1922 storm would be the best of all time by far if only it was all snow..... Feb 1961 is up there too!
  23. LibertyBell
    2020 could still be the warmest year on record and that would be amazing in a La Nina, let along a strong one.
  24. LibertyBell
    I was thinking of that and/or the Millenium storm, super lite version.
  25. LibertyBell
    revenge of the Millenium storm, super lite edition
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