LibertyBell

So basically it's from Jan 23 to the end of the month we have a chance and then after February ends?

So a completely different pattern out west too (which is where these rainers are coming from.) Actually sounds more like 1989-90 and 1997-98 lol. more like a strong el nino in the beginning and a la nina to close it out.

Have to throw out some of those winters-- 2015-16 was a very strong el nino, 1965-66 was also an el nino, I'm tossing the 1800s winters either way lol....so all we're left with is 1999-00 and a la nina (but second year not third year), but the only season really comparable to this one. That year had a surprise snowstorm in late January for the mid atlantic that changed to rain here. And that is the timeframe to watch this season too.

what keeps it from getting farther west?

So basically Jan 20-31?

1989-90 has been reincarnated lol Now we need to see if we can get a reincarnation of 1989-90 followed by a reincarnation of 2001-02 for next winter lol.

It would be interesting if we could challenge records from 1972-73 and 2001-02 for snowfall and warmth. I'm kind of disappointed we had that meaningless dry cold in December now. It probably means we can't beat any mild winter records but snowfall records are definitely in play on the low end lol. Are you confident about an el nino for next winter? Wouldn't it be more interesting if we somehow pulled off another la nina-- a 4 year la nina is unprecedented in modern times. Or we could have a neutral which would be another bad winter most likely? 01-02 was a neutral after a three year la nina and we saw how that turned out lol. I wonder if it's ever happened that we went right from a three year la nina into an el nino or if going to neutral first is more common?

I also enjoyed the amazingly hot summers we had from 2010-13, I suppose the NW flow pattern also helped with that since we had downsloping and less of an oceanic impact on the east coast.

Yeah I don't find averages to be very scientific at all. The climate is dynamic and has been changing throughout history. Now it's more human influenced than it ever was before, but still "averages" don't sound scientific to me. I think we should use standard deviations instead.

My storm door was stuck and could not be opened lol-- I've never seen that much sleet before in my entire life. Sleet is 2:1 liquid equivalent right? So that would have been 3" of rain? Omg..... or 30" of snow like Jan 2016 was lol. Do you remember what VD 2007 was? Something like 4 inches of snow and 2 inches of sleet with some freezing rain on top?

Something I remember that was often said about that season: "The first three weeks of April were colder than the first three weeks of January." I think it hit 70 on the 11 year anniversary of the January 1996 blizzard and yet did not hit 70 in the first three weeks of April lol. There was also a snow event in the south near Thanksgiving and again in April right down to the coast in the Carolinas. We had the Tax Day noreaster with snow in southern NJ. We did have two memorable wintry events -- VD 2007 and St Paddy's Day. Both were all frozen here, snow and sleet and freezing rain and long duration events.

There's a chance for a 2002 like pattern which I would love.

Nothing here since about noon, what does the radar look like for sw nassau?

the wind is sure blowing now....there was no snow in the afternoon and we just got a coating (T).

Yep, all complex animals have intuition, it's amazing really. I even read that trees in the Amazon control their own weather-- it's fascinating! Science papers were written on how they control nucleation..... About non thread the needle HECS snowstorms, I've always wondered how they happen.... like February 1978, February 1983, January 1996, PD 2 February 2003, January 2016 are the only ones I can think of offhand.....the other ones were thread the needle for the most part (even Boxing Day).

it also makes me think we should see stemwinding tropical systems too

I love seeing the snow and the swans!

It makes me wonder if this is how it sometimes snows (or drizzles) when you don't see anything on radar. Low level "under the radar"-- you often see this when it's very cold and you see these beautiful sparkly tiny snow crystals drifting down-- this happened a lot in February 2015. Another thing which could help precipitate is meteoric dust, which makes me wonder if precipitation is more likely just after meteor showers occur?

well many animals are highly intelligent and they also have a sixth sense that is linked to magnetic fields and some other cool stuff

salt nuclei?! you mean all that salt they were dumping when it wasn't snowing caused this snow? Good-- they should dump more of it lol

Yeah it's very photogenic lol like confetti

we don't get many sidewinders anymore do we? also what's a stemwinder? same thing? omg its snowing now and the sun is out at the same time big flakes looks like bird feathers slowly falling from the skies and the birds seem to love it too lol

It's started snowing again, Lol

I remember two storms, both la nina storms (I think?)..... January 2000, produced heavy snow in the DC area and rain here, and back on Vets Day 1987, heavy snow DC to Philly, only an inch or two here, and then heavy snow again up by Boston.

the snow flurring/light snow has started up again