LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Atlantic was fine in December, it got bad in January
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Winter isn't actually over, we just have to readjust our expectations to a boom or bust type system. We'll either get a lot of snow or very little-- "average" snowfall amounts no longer occur outside of a few rare winters.
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I think we already know because this area has become a swing and miss type of snowfall regime. In other words you will either get a lot of snow or none at all. You being further northeast will of course do better than NYC and most of us.
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What the statistics show though is that the coastal plain does not do well in December outside of exceptional setups. I don't think the coast should ever expect much snow in December.
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Yeah the things we are not getting anymore are normal snowfall seasons (between 22-28 inches) and we're also not getting moderate snowfalls anymore (2-4 inches, 3-5 inches, etc.) They seem to be either 40"+ or under 20" seasons and either dusting-2 inch snows or 6"+ (usually 10"+)
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dry and hot with beautiful blue skies is awesome a la April 2002
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everything is cause and effect, there is no true "randomness" in AGW extremes get more extreme so we expect both much snowier seasons and seasons with very little snow. and that's what we've been seeing for the last couple of decades
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If Philly got it in 1997-98 we can get it. At some point it's time to start rooting for that-- after all, that would be historic too.
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The indices looked good-- I'm not actually sure the pattern was really good .... think about it, we only got really cold just before Christmas. This really wasn't December 2010 where it was cold for over a week before we got the big snow.
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You get the last laugh with this winter, but I'd like to call your attention to the fact that you too predicted a somewhat snowy December. As I recall you said there would be no huge snowfalls, but we would get a few minor to moderate ones to make December somewhat snowy.
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Didn't we actually have something like this in December 1994? It made landfall near JFK with storm force winds while still moving westward. It should have been classified as a TC
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Not bad luck, the atlantic was too warm
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You can tell he's not really that excited-- when he gets excited the ALERT magically turns into ALEET ALEET
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hot and dry spring/summer with some tropical threats august and beyond but if an el nino materializes expect that to be muted. 2002 spring/summer should be a nice analog.
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Feb 89 that was some kind of bad-- almost as bad As Dec 89
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it was awful warm and dry is better
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4 foot waves on Lake Tahoe? WOW
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It may wait for March though. Those seem to be snowier than February in a la nina pattern.
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Only question is, can February be as warm or even warmer than January? avg temp 40 and above for both months? It's interesting how two completely different patterns can have very similar results lol.
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This really is much more like a neutral after la nina
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It's really good for the drought out West! Didn't we have a strong jet like this last winter too? Was that in December? The talk this morning is we should expect these kinds of anomalous jets with climate change?
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Thanks Walt, 0 or a T in the Poconos too.
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and then February was much cooler? Have we ever had an entire winter with all 4 winter months at or above 40, Don? (December, January, February, March)? I assume it would be 1997-1998 for Central Park and 1997-1998 and 2001-02 for LaGuardia and none for JFK or EWR?
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I think because you were in Iceland lol.
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With all these warm winters I wonder why it hasn't been more frequent? 40 degrees seems to be a fairly low bar to clear, especially since it's already averaged 50 in December. Also, I was shocked that the highest min in January has been 25. I would have thought we've had some where it was 28, 29, 30, etc as the lowest temp. I guess we're getting used to this weather now.
