LibertyBell

Winters like 2009-10, 2010-11 , 2013-14, and 2014-15 spoiled many people. I'd put 2017-18 in that same category, even with the mild February. It can happen but it's rare, if you get it once a decade you're lucky. We've had it way more than we should so expect a return to our once a decade type decent winters.

I'm not sure how much enso factors in, as I think you can find mediocre to bad winters in all types of enso. If you did a strict enso based breakdown of our under 30" snowfall winters (what I'd consider mediocre), I bet it doesn't matter whether you have a la nina, el nino or neutral, the majority of our snowfall seasons in all types of enso would be in that mediocre or less category.

At least it will snow in the mountains-- that's where it's really supposed to snow.

They are elevated after all. There's a reason you want to be in the mountains to see snow fall. Looks like my Poconos place is going to get some mighty fine skiing!

Could you imagine if we had competing astronomical models and one showed us getting hit by an existinction level event asteroid and the other one showed us getting whiffed by a few thousand miles? That would be comical if it wasn't such a serious situation! While other sciences have gotten better at predicting, it seems like meteorology has stagnated in the last decade or so.

I think he does it for egotistical reasons. You can tell by his smile lol.

Thats horrible! I'm talking more along the lines of when the temperature gets below 50 the heat MUST go on. I'm very warm blooded, I need the heat to be somewhere between 75-80.

It doesn't come close to matching "Jonas" Jan 2016 though on the NESIS scale. And the NESIS maps for Jan 2016 are underdone and it's still the third best KU event on the list (I'll put it ahead of March 1960 and right behind January 1996 and March 1993.)

The storm last January was a lot better for us than Nemo, though the heaviest snows were also east (and south of us), got over a foot in it so not complaining lol.

Yes like last winter, the big snow fell to the east of NYC (but better than Nemo here since we also got in on it.)

Wow most of the dates on that list went below zero, I believe 1/19/85 was the last time JFK went below zero and it was also the last time we had a high in the single digits wasn't it? And look at Jan 1977 with 4 days in that list lol. And how did we get an extreme block like that in August in 1956?

2017-18 was so interesting, we had that arctic cold and bomb blizzard in early January and then we had another extreme block with more snow in March and April. February was the only mild month that season. That was "the other" kind of La Nina.

aka wishcasting

These models should all be contracted at 10 days and none of them should be allowed to run beyond that.

Tambora would have been even better.

That's amazing that both Allentown and JFK had their largest snowfall (and both 30"+) from the same storm! They are so close in latitude, that has to be the reason why-- you can actually draw a straight line (well in a map projection lol) from Allentown to JFK. But what I was actually trying to ask was-- was that JFK's first measurable snowfall of the season and is their total from the storm a record for the first snowfall of the season?

Lots and lots of snow? Lol jking, with less sunlight we could create a mass die off of vegetation and completely change the wind patterns and ocean currents, as the planet seeks to rebalance heat between the poles and tropics. The thing is when climate changes naturally, this happens very slowly and everything stabilizes and equlibriates and nature has millions of years to adjust. When human beings tamper with the system via climate change, everything occurs MUCH faster and there is no guarantee there won't be a lot of destruction before everything stabilizes and equilibriates-- and the new equilibrium point may not be where we want it to be. In the case of geoengineering, the changes occur even faster than anthropogenic climate change so you can guess there is even more of a chance things could go awry and create a chain reaction runaway effect. This has actually happened before and resulted in mass extinction events (via volcanoes).....the planet took a long time to equilibriate and when stability was finally reached 90% of life was killed off in the largest of these mass extinction events (the Permian mass extinction-- which also resulted in our best fossil fuel deposits.) We've already started the 6th mass extinction in the planet's history, this would accelerate that exponentially. It's probably something that if it does ever get done, it has to be thoroughly tested first and needs to be approached with extreme caution.

paywalled but if they're talking about using heating appliances for heat, I used to do that because I didn't want to turn my heat on before November 1st. Then I got a space heater for my bedroom so it's all good.

2015-16 was amazing with the first measurable snowfall being over 2 feet lol...30+ here Was JFK's 30"+ in that storm the first time a location's first seasonal snowfall was 30"+?

With the latest "upgrade" the GFS may be bringing up the rear of all the forecast models.

Climo says our first legit snow threat is around 12/21 as it usually is. That's when real winter begins. As it should.

After all these years of knowing what tristate area weather is like, I can't believe so many are ready to jump off the ledge.....do people not realize that this is how our good patterns usually begin-- with models jumping the gun on pattern changes, often by a week or two? Winter actually begins in the third week of December, so anything before that is a bonus. This is not a pattern being delayed in the middle of February-- ACTUAL winter hasn't even started yet!

why would you be copying him anyway-- his outlooks are virtually the same every year lol

That's my memory too-- and also when you get a -NAO in December it tends to persist for much of the winter.

above normal monthly mean doesn't mean we can't get snowstorms-- there are some + Decembers in that list that still had a decent amount of snow.