LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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it's climo dude, our snow season here usually ends with February. People to the north do better.
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should have been for THIS Saturday
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Right, this is not the kind of set up where we see a significant snow storm
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will likely be rain here then or a mix.
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Problem is, as Chris and I have discussed in previous years, this is a highly stable pattern and tends to last for a few years.
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Yep basically agreed with cape. for - nao to work the Pacific needs to cooperate....it doesn't need to be great but it can't be utterly hostile either
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this is also why -nao rarely worked out in the 80s too
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record cold and record warmth in the CONUS at the same time, how much of a role did that play?
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early season el nino pattern and late season la nina pattern is the worst possible combo lol
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Yes I believe that's how we got snow in March 1998. That's actually quite an exciting pattern to have cold air just to our north because there's a certain amount of unpredictability-- volatility like you said. Models often underdo the progress of the cold air and historically we get colder than what they predicted.
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I'm not sure if cold air to our west is any good though, that pumps up the SE Ridge does it not? Cold air to our north is actually better, it can seep in without moderating much. Cold air to our west moderates quickly due to downsloping before it gets here, and it usually gets here after precipitation leaves (it dries out the air via that same downsloping process.)
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I can see that happening, March is known for fluke events in bad winters.
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Yes the beginning and end of the month are better, the middle two weeks however, were just as bad and in some cases worse than January. We hit 70 on Long Island and spent multiple days in the 60s.
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Yes but you need that 50/50. In my experience that doesn't happen down here that often to get a decent amount of snow. More farther north of course.
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February is definitely better than January but still very bad. Remember we spent a long time in the 50s and higher this month. The beginning and end of the month were/will be better though.
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Yes that's what I meant, trailing waves depend on luck. Insofar as luck exists lol-- that would be it. That is the climatology of our region, we need to lock the cold air, that's why snowy periods are so rare down here.
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Unfortunately cold air doesn't like to move west to east lol. It would be interesting to see a temperature anomaly composite for the entire continent of this season vs both 1997-98 and 2001-02.
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If you're talking about December I agree, but January and February, there was very little cold air here. Having both months average above 40 is very rare.
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New England was much milder relative to average though, you only need temps in the 30s to get good snow of course. I don't care about Arctic air, it's not necessary. We've had very little cold air nearby this season too, you just have to look at the average temps in January and February, the warmest such couplet on record.
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Those trailing waves are very rare, to my knowledge a likelihood of that happening is like 10%
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It depends on what you mean by cold air, there is always cold air somewhere, but usually it's at a higher latitude. We only need it to be "just cold enough" which means near average. February 2010 was an amazing month for snow but it wasn't very cold. It sucked for New England but we don't care about New England....February 2010 was one of the snowiest months on record without much cold, and that's even with that historic miss at the beginning of the month. If we had that it would have been our snowiest winter ever. Toms River probably had that since it had the best of all the snowstorms that season.
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More like 2001-02 then
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For example we had less cold air outbreaks in 2009-10....cold air doesn't ecessarily equal snow in this area. I'd rather have less cold and more snow.
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I do remember some epic historic ice storms just north of us in 97-98 Cold air doesn't mean anything if the pattern doesn't allow cold air to be here during storms, we had that during the 80s and early 90s too You can have snow and lots of it, without it being very cold.
