LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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Conservatism is the way to go, especially this far out. But they also complain that no one listens to them because this is a social media world now
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Basically yeah, that's what a pro would say.
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It's only like thousands of times we've seen this scenario play out before and H5 always leads the way. I'd want for surface changes to wait for the 0z run anyway because of its higher skill scores.
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H5 improvement always leads surface impacts.....0z could be amazing. Thats the most accurate run historically anyway.
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Eastern NE also has a much higher chance to change to rain
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Lee Goldberg is already honking on this storm, saying the chances are getting stronger that this will be a high impact event for our area with two days of snowfall 60+ mph winds and lots of coastal flooding.
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NAM has been deadly with east coast storms, remember Jan 2016.
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I think we should name this storm Hercules, because he was the step son of Juno (Hera in Greek mythology-- wife of Zeus), and no matter how much she tried to ruin him, Hercules triumphed at every labor she put on him.
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It's basically like a PRE....Lee Goldberg was just talking about this and said the snow will move in early just like it did with Boxing Day
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EE combination is the best modeling combo of all time.
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I think the same happened with Irene.
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Good nice to see a warm up after our huge snowstorm.
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Thanks Don, +0.5 sounds pretty close to neutral, will the AO be around -0.5? Maybe they will neutralize each other lol.
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That prediction was amazing considering there had been a decade plus of conservative forecasts since the March 2001 bust. I guess the Euro really had much more respect back then.
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Just get to 20" and you'll have a nice round HECS number. -
indeed, I would say this was the ideal run. Unfortunately we still have 5 days to go lol
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what was the reason for the boxing day disappointment? deform band too far west?
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it's perfect as is, hold it here. 20 inches for most.
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I like that the furthest west members are touching the Jersey shore, that establishes a nice firewall to the west. I expect this to track between Block Island and Nantucket.
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we've seen that disconnect more and more lately...so the AO will be negative and the NAO will be positive on Friday and over the weekend? Will they be weakly such or significantly departing from 0?
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yes these fly by night events are a bit annoying.
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when humanity reaches its next stage of evolutionary progress this is exactly how we'll all be talking. we might not even be talking, we will be directly projecting the words into each other's minds.
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Yeah it's like the kind of bust one would expect in the 80s. 3/01 resulted in a massive change in the way snowfall accumulation forecasts were made and for over a decade forecast conservatism prevailed.....until Jan 2015 lol... The Euro throwing out those immense totals for Jan 2015 must've taken everyone aback and because it was the unquestioned best model everyone bought those projected totals hook, line and sinker.
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Wait....March 2001 dropped 5" of back end snow when 2 to 3 ft were predicted, and the first two thirds of it was rain which really sucked. in Jan 2015 there was zero rain, not a single drop and 10 inches of pure snow, that's what makes it better. Also we got our thirty incher the following year, so all was good with the world, right?
