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LibertyBell

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Everything posted by LibertyBell

  1. LibertyBell
    I've never bought into this nina/nino climo stuff as I've seen a wide range out outcomes with each phase, not enough evidence to favor one over the other. Besides we're in a much different climate pattern now vs 50 years ago so I doubt what applied then still applies anymore. Our best and worst winters and biggest snowstorms have occurred in each phase and at all times of the season. People try to simplify LR forecasting too much when they rely on just one thing when in reality a vast array of competing factors determine the outcome.
  2. LibertyBell
    The first week of March, I told you to watch out for it lol
  3. LibertyBell
    This seems like a more normal track for storms to take, I think if you averaged out all the different tracks storms could take this would be the most common for storms that affect our area... I'm not sure if the traditional benchmark tracks are "normal" as Islip's average annual snowfall is less than Newark's. The types of big bombs that we have gotten with those tracks are something you'd expect once a decade or so, not every year. We've got a high percentage of snow with these storms so it's all good.
  4. LibertyBell
    the Feb 1899 arctic outbreak was accompanied by a historic snowstorm, I believe the statehouse in Tallahassee saw 2 inches and even Tampa had measurable snow? All of the above arctic outbreaks had temps of 0 or below in NYC.
  5. LibertyBell
    cant even say it's because we're a coastal area because Houston is right near the gulf lol
  6. LibertyBell
    one thing I've always wondered about....was this a failing of the models or did something radically different happen to change the outcome? Like some sort of unpredictable black swan event.
  7. LibertyBell
    if that airmass had hit us directly, I dont think it would have gotten to below zero here. Single digits maybe
  8. LibertyBell
    why not block all untraceable IP until they give you credit card info to verify identity?
  9. LibertyBell
    wow even the Poconos are in the mid 40s think we finally hit 50 here, Chris?
  10. LibertyBell
    I've seen some cams from there with snow piling up live and it reminds me of what we saw in cams from Boxing Day in Monmouth County, but even higher rates and lasted much longer. I remember they had skiing July 4th one year.
  11. LibertyBell
    what is it going to take to push that ridge out? why dont ridges move like storms do
  12. LibertyBell
    seems like the storm last December
  13. LibertyBell
    wow and I thought the mountains in WA had the most snow, looks like Tahoe may have set a world record for snowfall.
  14. LibertyBell
    I dont think we had much snow in March 1969 did we? March 1978 did have one decent 3-5 inch event.
  15. LibertyBell
    that was my favorite summer.....here are the GOATs...Babe Ruth, Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzsky, Secretariat, Jack Nicklaus, Jim Thorpe, Michael Phelps, Jessie Owens, Carl Lewis, THE WINTER OF 1996 and THE SUMMER OF 2010 ! We're back in the 11 yr cycle.
  16. LibertyBell
    but we still had an amazing winter that year, did the AO go back down again?
  17. LibertyBell
    wow could you imagine Tahoe weather occurring in NY people would go absolutely crazy!
  18. LibertyBell
    Chris what changed to cause the rapid rise?
  19. LibertyBell
    wow we dipped to below -5 twice in 09-10 and then again in Dec 2010
  20. LibertyBell
    That was in Feb I think and ACY got 20 inches we got zilch well we got virga but thats it another blown 8 inch call
  21. LibertyBell
    oh thats why CAD affected them more than those two snowstorms did- they had NE winds! NE wind affects LGA more?
  22. LibertyBell
    started at 3? thats early- and started as not snow which wasn't expected
  23. LibertyBell
    changed over quickly
  24. LibertyBell
    the dew point is the temperature which the ground cools down to isnt it?
  25. LibertyBell
    look for something in the first week of March
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