LibertyBell

The connection between the extreme enso swing of going from el nino to la nina resulting in some of our biggest extreme summer heat AND best snowfall winters is pretty well established, but we should also try and analyze to see what happens in the reverse case (going from la nina to el nino) as this may be of more importance in the near future when we finally do swing towards the warmer phase of the enso.

Some of these past ones you mentioned in the 1910s and 1930s also featured major swings between la nina and el nino if I'm not mistaken. That may be the common pattern here. Very hot summers (that come from extremely high daytime temperatures) commonly come after major heat release going from el nino to la nina or el nino to neutral and going from el nino to a colder enso state also gives us some of our best snowfall winters (because the STJ is still juiced up from the prior el nino and combines with arctic shots which are more common during colder ENSO phases) so that may be what we're looking for. Note: 1982-83 going from very strong el nino to 1983-84 la nina was another major swing year and although we didn't get the major snows, we did get more frequent snows and the arctic cold sure was there.

This would be fun to experience again-- I look forward to the next strong el nino, whenever that may be lol.

I think there might be but it has to fit a certain kind of heat. Like 1993, 1995, 2002 and 2010 kind of heat. The kind of heat where you have extreme high temperatures not high heat that is solely the result of high mins. I think either Don or Chris or both came up with something a year or two ago that would be something worth investigating in terms of the "why"-- this kind of heat actually results from a -NAO in the summer so it makes sense if it was persistent blocking it would also help make the winter cold/snowy too. That's what happened in 2010. This is accelerated by when we go from el nino into la nina. Another winter from the past which fits this category is 1966-67, which was very snowy and came after the exceptionally hot summer of 1966. While all our summers are very warm to hot now, when we're trying to figure this out, we have to look beyond the numbers and look at what kind of heat we are talking about. We are specifically looking for heat that comes from extreme high temperatures, not just high mins. 1966, 1977, 1993, 1995, 2002, 2010 all fit this category. Also noteworthy is that of this list 1966, 1977, 1995, 2002 and 2010 were all either el nino going into la nina, two year el nino, or el nino going to neutral.

Yes it's destroying the lobster season in Maine too, as both the summer and winter greatest warm departures have been well north of us. It also makes it more likely for tropical threats to be steered into our region. In that way it's a little bit similar to the 50s (which also had the most snow in March.)

You would have really enjoyed the 80s (not) lol. My sister who's a bit older than me was relating her experiences of how much colder it was back then and how windy, but with much less snowfall (more events but much smaller in quantity). She said an inch or two of snowfall turned into an icy slushy mess that constantly refroze and made both driving and walking treacherous. We basically had 1-2 inch light snowfalls in between major arctic outbreaks, or rain in between them which created puddles which promptly froze right near the curb and caused lots of slips and falls when the arctic airmass slipped back in. 2-4 or 3-5 inch snowfalls were considered a major luxury back then and usually came right before winter was supposed to end, a parting "gift" from winter, as it were.

Thanks Don, so if you go by diurnal range, let's say 4 AM to afternoon high, it was more like a -1/6 degree split? And January 1985 was -2/7 right? What was January 1977, also -2/7? Those would be the only three days in my lifetime where the high temp remained in the single digits for the diurnal range (ignoring midnight madness-- officially only January 1985 and January 1977 qualify if you go by official recordkeeping.)

Wow! Did it snow everywhere that day or was it very spotty? I'm going to put Christmas 1980 on my short list for underrated and underrappreciated extreme winter days. So far it's that, the January 1985 extreme arctic outbreak and PD2 on the list. I didn't know the afternoon high was so low, that puts it up there with the elite of the late 1800s and early 1900s as some of the coldest days we have had here all time. I would love to know what kind of airmass that was and how it compares to the January 1985 extreme arctic airmass which was the only single digit high temperature at NYC I can remember (-2/7 split). I was way too young in January 1977 to remember that at all.

Wow some of these winters happened a long time ago. It would be interesting to see if the first four chronologically 1877-78, 1885-86, 1891-92 and 1943-44 were very cold winters and had any below zero lows (like 2015-16 did in February)?

You mean both the highs and the lows?

Plus a lot of cold to keep that icy mess on the sidewalks and side streets for weeks on end.

Why did clippers back then bring 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow and now it's like an inch or two at most and usually not even that?

Look at all those winters in the 80s with single digit temperatures in December. Those were some very windy very cold days I remember we had wind chills between -45 and -60 in December and January (I wonder what they would be with the new wind chill calculations) and wind chill warnings (not advisories--- actual WARNINGS!) Granted it did not snow much at all, so I don't miss that kind of awful cold, because the ground was mostly bare. It's interesting the highs in 1980 and 1988 and 1989 don't make this list, even though the -1 low on Christmas Day in 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow) was the last time it got below zero in December and December 1989 was the coldest on record. The only December from the 80s that makes both the lowest highs and lowest lows list is December 1983. Interestingly enough that came right after the hottest summer on record (to that point).....summer 1983 didn't just have the most number of 90 degree days, it also had the most 70+ dew point days and the most 90 degree days in September (5). The change between September and December that year must have been truly jarring!

The coldest we have gotten since the early 40s was -2 at NYC and -3 at LGA. That may be the coldest it can now get around here. The lowest highs temps were 7 degrees which happened in 1977 and 1985. That may still yet be possible, as 1984-1985 was a mild winter overall with a historic arctic shot in the middle of it. To me not getting that cold anymore isn't such a big deal because when it did get that cold we didn't get much snow. I would much rather have temps in the teens or 20s with a lot of snow rather than single digits with no or very little snow. Below zero is another matter, as that is historic, the same way 100 or above is historic, so both of those kinds of records are very interesting to see.

This reminds me of February 2016 which was one of the warmest to have a below zero low, wasn't it?

I'm still optimistic for around 25-28 inches this season, since the lion's share of our snow comes in January and February and winter really begins here around January 20th. Okay probably the lower range of that scale, maybe more like 20-25 lol. Still near average.

If it's timed right (like during the rush hour) it can happen again. I remember when that happened and it was in the late 90s and something like 4-5 inches fell in like 2 hours right during the rush hour. It happened on two occasions and both times it was a disaster in terms of being able to get anywhere.

Yep, I believe this is the dreaded worst case scenario. Actually in some ways it reminds me of the Blizzard of 1888. I wonder how well NYC would handle that if it happened in modern times? Maybe better because of buried power lines? I wonder if Buffalo's power lines are buried or are they overhead? The more I think about it, the heavy rain to heavy snow scenario, the sharp drop in temps to near 0, hurricane force winds and very heavy long duration snow scenario does remind me of the Blizzard of 1888 too.

Isn't Jan 20th now the usual start to our winters? It seems to be that way for the last decade or so.

lol the average temperature in the second half of the month (21.1) was exactly half of what it was in the first half of the month (42.2).....funny thing is I don't remember any of that warmth, all I remember from that month is the big snowstorm.

I think the most visual way to explain it is the extreme warmth (fire) that has been afflicting the Arctic for so many years has now finally reached the extreme northeastern part of the US.

I wonder what the record is to maintain the exact same temperature (record number of consecutive hours.) I have to assume it happened when it was warm, humid and (perhaps) foggy? Near a stationary front?

Yes I edited my post to give the total number of samples of each as I feel that is a better way to express it than percentages when the sample size is so small. 13 total cases 1 case of 30"+ 6 cases of 20"+ 4 cases of under 10" (this also infers 3 cases between 10-20") Looks like our best realistic hope now is to somehow get near average snowfall (which I consider between 20-29")

wow Don, so of the 8 cases that saw 30" or more of snowfall the most was 32.8"? That means there were 8 cases packed into the narrow margin of 30-32.8? That's pretty amazing. I wonder how many were el nino vs la nina vs neutral? edit-- you said 8% out of 13 so that would be only 1 case haha..... Better to use number of total cases rather than percentages when the sample size is so small. I just did this in my head for a rough idea....so it's just 1 case of 30"+ 6 total cases of 20"+ and 4 cases of under 10"?

I remember there were people trapped in cars, buses and trains in NYC during the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard but not this kind of death toll (I don't remember what the death toll was but it was very low from what I recall?)