LibertyBell
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Everything posted by LibertyBell
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second storm was supposed to be 5-8 but underperformed (cold dry air ate into the moisture and caused it to end early). The first storm was more mixed precip here so it would switch back and forth between snow and rain.
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Did New York City go below zero in March 1872 too? Also was the March 1962 noreaster more damaging than the December 1992 noreaster? I thought the former was bigger south of us, while December 1992 is the noreaster of record for our area and set the new surge record.
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It's more that whomever is closest to the water will probably see the least. Got to be in elevated areas to see the best snow
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One storm wonders though usually do their thing in January and February. I think March 1992 is probably the best we can hope for, that was one time in relative recent history when a really bad winter was somewhat saved in March. Have you looked up those two March storms in your area-- how did you guys do there? The time period is similar too, the 19th and 22nd.
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I just mean in general when dealing with a bad winter. In a good winter borderline patterns work out better than they do in a bad winter.
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"Best look" is still probably not good enough. A look like this in an already snowy season will produce a different result than in a season when it hasn't been snowing.
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I see a lot of optimism, but in this region's climate, it pays to be pessimistic; pessimism tends to be correct more often than not.
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March 1992 is an analog we have been talking about 6.2 on the 19th and 3.4 on the 22th.
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Don, so JFK already passed their record from 1972-73?!
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Be careful with Miller B's like I said in the other post, they are often a New England special. Simply too far to the southwest here to do well unless it's a really big one that strengthens early and quickly and even then we're usually on the fringe of the best part of it.
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Don what's JFK's record and is it from 1972-73 and is that the lowest record from the 5 boroughs?
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Depends, it came into play in February this year when it was in the 60s lol
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we have to be careful with Miller B's they often don't produce here
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Can you check to see what JFK had in 1972-73? I want to see if they are close to setting their new low record, they have 1.7" as of now. I'm using that for the lowest number for the city as a whole lol.
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you're like me rooting on a historically low snowfall season. It's been miserable for most of the winter, let's get that for our troubles.
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Lake Tahoe looks better though lol
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No thank you, I'd rather get the record lol
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I believe it's much more the decadal cycle of the PDO rather than la nina because we all know of a few la ninas that were extremely snowy. 95-96, 10-11, and even 20-21. If you go through the list of the least snowiest winters, very few of the bottom 10 were la ninas....probably more el ninos than la ninas in there...as I stated in the above post, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.
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But other la ninas weren't this pitiful in terms of snow and some of them are VERY snowy. If you go through our 10 least snowy winters how many of them were la nina vs el nino? I can tell you right now the two that come to mind right away were both el ninos (72-73 and 97-98) and one was neutral (01-02). Truthfully, enso state only has a 20% impact on our weather.
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No nothing can really overwhelm the pattern unless it's extremely strong....(you see this in very strong la ninas and very strong el ninos), which is why you see both snowy la ninas and not snowy la ninas, and snowy el ninos and not snowy el ninos. Everything needs to be factored in.
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This is a good idea not to rely on any solution until within 5 days, beyond 5 days none of them are very reliable.
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How though... if the GFS had a cutter for this storm 7 days out, did it switch to a snowy Boston solution after that? Looking at TWC it's actually snowing there right now, but it's a slushy kind of snow.
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Yep so it's not one thing that starts it all but really everything working together. I see Indian Ocean conditions often mentioned as a precursor to whether there will be a la nina or an el nino so maybe something in the IO triggers it. It makes more sense that way on a round planet. Now if the earth were flat it would be a different story lol.
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I dont believe it's any one thing, I believe everything works together in synchronicity. It makes sense because that's how nature works in general. The Pacific is influenced by the Indian Ocean which is influenced by what is west of it, etc. Since we are on a globe, everything is both cause and effect.
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No it had rain for us like a week ago. I don't know what it had for Boston, I just know it had a cutter for us back then.
